There is an interesting article entitled Obama Outsmarts the Terrorists, by Peter Beinart on The Daily Beast. Beinart argues, in effect, that only overreaction from the US has kept al Qaeda going. Without US overreaction (invading Muslim countries, Abu Ghraib torture and Guantánamo Bay prison), al Qaeda's endless slaughter of Muslims rapidly erodes their popular support around the world, and especially in Muslim countries. President Obama's measured response to terrorism, Beinart argues, is an effective approach to reducing the power of the terrorists.
An interesting view, and persuasively argued.
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Saturday, February 6, 2010
Recommended: The Electorate vs. Obama's Agenda
I recommend Charles Krauthammer's article The Electorate vs. Obama's Agenda in yesterday's Washington Post. Although hubris and arrogance seem to permeate Washington politics in both parties, it is particularly noticeable these days in the liberals, probably because they are in power at the moment.
One can only wonder, for example, at the arrogance of Speaker Pelosi, determined to push through the health bill irrespective of the clear message from polls and recent by-elections that the majority of the electorate doesn't want it. Well, these things have a way of sorting themselves out at the next election.
One can only wonder, for example, at the arrogance of Speaker Pelosi, determined to push through the health bill irrespective of the clear message from polls and recent by-elections that the majority of the electorate doesn't want it. Well, these things have a way of sorting themselves out at the next election.
Recommended: The Sporting Mind
Once again David Brooks has written an interesting, offbeat Op Ed in the Feb 5, 2010, New York Times entitled The Sporting Mind. Highly recommended.
It is worth pondering what keeps a nation as disparate as ours, drawn from all corners of the earth, supporting a massive variety of religions, political views, cultural outlooks and world views, from simply falling apart. It is truly a remarkable feat, not widely emulated elsewhere on the globe.
It is worth pondering what keeps a nation as disparate as ours, drawn from all corners of the earth, supporting a massive variety of religions, political views, cultural outlooks and world views, from simply falling apart. It is truly a remarkable feat, not widely emulated elsewhere on the globe.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Recommended: America's Two Economies
I recommend the article in today's Feb 3, 2010 Forbes, entitled America's Two Economies.
The authors compare several economic statistics across this recession and several previous recessions. Here is a sample chart from the article:
The authors argue that the "recovering"economy touted by the administration spin doctors, and the "real" economy are not the same, and that this recession is recovering much more slowly than previous recession, in spite of the stimulus packages (plural, because although they don't call recent spending a "second stimulus package", in effect it really is).
The authors compare several economic statistics across this recession and several previous recessions. Here is a sample chart from the article:
The authors argue that the "recovering"economy touted by the administration spin doctors, and the "real" economy are not the same, and that this recession is recovering much more slowly than previous recession, in spite of the stimulus packages (plural, because although they don't call recent spending a "second stimulus package", in effect it really is).
Obama's Deficits: Not His Fault?
Excerpt from Robert Robb's Feb 3, 2010 article Obama's Deficits: Not His Fault? on RealClearPolitics:
The Bush tax cuts expire this year. Except for the legacy costs of the Iraq war, Obama is free to recommend changing anything Bush did. The deficits he recommends from 2011 on are purely his own.
And they are massive, and driven by spending.
Obama proposes that the federal government spend over 25 percent of GDP in 2011, compared to a historical average of around 20.5 percent. He justifies this as necessary to continue to fight the recession.
Obama, however, projects that the recession will be fully over in 2011 and robust growth under way. Yet he proposes that federal spending continue to be nearly 24 percent of GDP through 2020.
In other words, rather than wind down the additional recession spending after recovery, Obama is proposing that it simply become a new, higher base.
After the World War II debt was reduced, accumulated federal debt never exceeded 50 percent of GDP until 2009, when it reached 53 percent. Under Obama's recommendations it would grow to 77 percent by 2020.
If Obama were to recommend a path to return spending to its historical share of economic output, in 2020 the deficit would be just $255 billion, about what the federal government spends each year on large capital projects, and just 1 percent of GDP. In other words, not a problem. And federal spending would have still increased by more than 4 percent a year since 2008.
Instead, Obama recommends a 2020 deficit of over $1 trillion and a troubling 4.2 percent of GDP.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Recommended: Deficit Balloons Into National-Security Threat
Gerald Seib in today's Wall Street Journal, in an article entitled Deficit Balloons Into National-Security Threat, argues that the growing size of our national debt is no longer an inconvenience, it is now a serious threat to our nation. The alarming chart below, from his article, speaks for itself:
The Democrats would like to blame the Bush administration, which certainly didn't show much fiscal restraint. But in fact, the Obama administration deficit is larger in the first year than the total Bush excesses over his eight years in office, so that argument is weak at best. Nevertheless, it hardly matters who is at fault here - all that matters now is convincing Congress to do something effective about it, and that seems like a tall order.
The Democrats would like to blame the Bush administration, which certainly didn't show much fiscal restraint. But in fact, the Obama administration deficit is larger in the first year than the total Bush excesses over his eight years in office, so that argument is weak at best. Nevertheless, it hardly matters who is at fault here - all that matters now is convincing Congress to do something effective about it, and that seems like a tall order.
Recommended: Politicians in Wonderland
I recommend Thomas Sowell's Feb 2, 2010, article Politicians in Wonderland. Sowell is the author of Economic Facts and Fallacies, a wonderful book that explores the reality behind a lot of our economic myths. It's not yet on my book list because I haven't finished reading it.
Sowell makes the point that politicians frequently mandate things that they "think" are good for us, without really thinking through the unintended consequences. For example, a mandated minimum wage sounds like a good idea, but one unintended consequence is that lots of low-paying jobs just disappear (are moved offshore, or automated, or are just eliminated) when the governmental mandates a wage higher than some low-skill people are worth. Now instead of having a low-paying job, they have no job at all - hardly what the politicians intended.
Sowell argues much the same thing is happening as Congress works through things like the health care bill (a bill, by the way, that will not affect members of Congress at all, since they have their own federal "Cadillac" health care plan which is largely exempted from the restrictions and taxes they intend to impose on the rest of us.)
Sowell makes the point that politicians frequently mandate things that they "think" are good for us, without really thinking through the unintended consequences. For example, a mandated minimum wage sounds like a good idea, but one unintended consequence is that lots of low-paying jobs just disappear (are moved offshore, or automated, or are just eliminated) when the governmental mandates a wage higher than some low-skill people are worth. Now instead of having a low-paying job, they have no job at all - hardly what the politicians intended.
Sowell argues much the same thing is happening as Congress works through things like the health care bill (a bill, by the way, that will not affect members of Congress at all, since they have their own federal "Cadillac" health care plan which is largely exempted from the restrictions and taxes they intend to impose on the rest of us.)
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