We are an oligarchy, not a democracy

A study entitled Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups and Average Citizens, by Martin Gilen of Princeton Univ and Benjamin Page of Northwestern Univ., to be published in the Fall issue of Perpectives in Politics, comes to the conclusion that despite the political rhetoric about how America is a democracy, in fact we are really now an oligarchy, in some respects not unlike Russia these days.

This is not surprising; we have known for a long time that wealth buys access and influence in politics (it always has throughout history), and big wealth buys big influence. As the authors say:

"The central point that emerges from our research is that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on US government policy, while mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence."

It is pretty clear that as long as money is a key factor in political elections, this problem will just get worse (and recent Supreme Court decisions are no help here!). And it is equally clear that the very people who would have to enact campaign reform (politicians) are the very people who have a distinct interest in NOT enacting effective campaign reform. So it is not clear just how this situation can be resolved, short of the sort of mass street demonstrations and civil revolts that have plagued Eastern Europe and the Arab world lately. What would it take to get enough Americans riled up enough to make this happen?

 

“The central point that emerges from our research is that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence.”
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/04/study-u-s-is-oligarchy-not-republic/#QuT2ZrqEwztZUM6e.99

“The central point that emerges from our research is that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence.”
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/04/study-u-s-is-oligarchy-not-republic/#QuT2ZrqEwztZUM6e.99

A recent study by professors Martin Gilens of Princeton and Benjamin I. Page found that the U.S. now resembles more of an oligarchy than a democratic republic.
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/04/study-u-s-is-oligarchy-not-republic/#lvOq2UTZEBx1C22k.99

A recent study by professors Martin Gilens of Princeton and Benjamin I. Page found that the U.S. now resembles more of an oligarchy than a democratic republic.
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/04/study-u-s-is-oligarchy-not-republic/#lvOq2UTZEBx1C22k.99

Russia’s long-term future

As the West agonizes over President Putin’s seeming ability to outmaneuver both the US and the EU in foreign policy, it is worth looking more closely at Russia’s likely long-term trajectory.  Despite its recent assertiveness in the Ukraine, Russia faces four very, very serious challenges:

1      Oil revenue.  Russia currently depends on oil and gas exports for 51% of its total export revenue, and it is this oil and gas revenue that has allowed President Putin to maintain such popular support as he has.  But the Russian oil fields are old, and recent estimates are that production is falling about 6% per year in its West Siberian fields, which produce about 65% of its oil.  Maintaining significant production in these fields in future years will require substantial investment (mostly foreign) and Western technical advances, neither of which may be available to Russia under the current circumstances.  Moreover, as fracking technology continues to spread through Europe, the price that Russian oil and gas can command will drop. Russia needs oil to remain above about $110/barrel just to balance its current budget, yet oil currently sits at just under $100/barrel.

2      Demographics. Russia’s population peaked at about 148 million in 1991, and has been declining about 0.5% per year since, though in the past year or two it has leveled out a bit. Although the UN’s original 2005 estimate that Russia might lose a third of its population by 2050 may have been too pessimistic, the age distribution of the population will continue to swell the elderly and deplete the working-age population, with painful results for the economy.

3      Investment. Russia is still burdened with old, inefficient Soviet-era industry. President Putin might have tried to use his oil revenue to modernize and upgrade Russia’s infrastructure and aging manufacturing base, but he didn’t.  But even had he tried, it might not have worked, since corruption is so endemic in the system that most of the investment money would probably have been siphoned off to enrich local managers and his inner circle.  In any case, when the oil revenue eventually runs out, Russia will still have a hugely inefficient manufacturing segment that will not be able to compete in the world market.

4      Chinese expansionism. While President Putin is focused on maintaining and expanding his Eastern borders in places like the Ukraine, his most serious threat may come on his Southern boarders with China. Russian Siberia is very lightly populated, while the areas just across the border in China are heavily populated. China is well aware that much of that largely-unpopulated land was Chinese until the 17^th century, and may well aspire to retake it in the future.

So while President Putin may be looking successful in the short-term, with his moves in the Ukraine, he faces much more serious issues in the long term. But then, he has reportedly already amassed a fortune in the billions, so perhaps he really doesn’t care what happens to his nation long-term.

Recommended: Russians: The People behind the Power

Gregory Feifer is a former NPR Moscow correspondent, of Russian extraction (his mother was a Russian, his father an American). He has written  Russians: The People behind the Power as an attempt to explain the Russian world view and psyche to Americans.  Not surprisingly, given their history and geography, the average Russian (who hasn't been thoroughly Westernized) sees the world with an entirely different perspective than most Americans do.

The picture he paints is entirely consistent with a book I mentioned a few posts back, Fragile Empire: How Russia Fell In and Out of Love With Putin. The picture one gets is of a generous, enduring, warm-hearted people shaped by centuries of oppression into a sort of terminal fatalism.

With respect to the current government, it really isn't all that different from what has preceded it over the past few centuries, from communism to the tsars.  Although it has the trappings of a democratic system, in fact it is really just a huge mafia gang, with Putin as the capo di tutti capo, or Godfather. He has maintained public support by playing the nationalism card repeatedly, keeping his inner circle of cronies very wealthy, and using the nation's oil and mineral wealth to provide some improvement in services.  But like many of the oil-rich Arab states, he hasn't used the current (and highly temporary) oil wealth to invest in modern infrastructure, modern manufacturing, or better education,  and to make his nation more competitive in the world markets.   

Since corruption is rampant at all levels, from the lowest local official or traffic cop to the president himself (reputedly now worth over 40 billion), it is hard to see how this country can ever become a first-world power, for all that it aspires to that status. It certainly won't happen quickly, if at all.  Meanwhile, the West will have to learn how to manage Russian's inherent expansionism, and deal with it's authoritarian government.

Recommended: Can Putin’s Ukrainian Strategy Be Countered?

As Russian-inspired unrest continues to build in Eastern Ukraine, perhaps in preparation for yet another "protective" invasion from Russia, Walter Russel Mead has written an excellent article in The American Interest, Can Putin’s Ukrainian Strategy Be Countered?

Mead argues that Putin has probably outplayed the West again, leaving us with two choices, both unpalatable. We can ignore the Ukraine (make appropriate diplomatic noises, but essentially do nothing), or we can try to turn it into a vital, vibrant Western nation. The first choice has nasty side effects - would any ally trust American or EU resolve after that? The second choice may be impossible, since the ruling classes in the Ukraine are as profoundly corrupt as in Russia itself. Moreover, as Mead points out, such little economic vitality as the Ukraine possesses is all centered in the Eastern, Russian-dominated portion of the country.  The Western portion is about like Appalachia, and it would be a long, hard, and very, very expensive task to make it economically competitive and self-sustaining in the Western markets.

Perhaps, Mead suggests, the US and the EU will try to take the middle ground - do enough for the Ukraine so that politicians can't be accused of ignoring it, but not enough to make any real different. That, Mead argues, is probably what Putin is betting on, and he is probably right. In that sense, Putin has completely outplayed the West, which seems to lack any coherent strategy for dealing with the new Russia.

Recommended: Afghanistan—Graveyard of Empires?

Max Boot, a Senior Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institute, has just published a good article on Afghanistan: Afghanistan - Graveyard of Empires? He makes the point, no doubt valid, that continued America aid will be required if we are not to see Afghanistan revert to exactly what it was before we invaded it - a haven for terrorists. If that were to happen, all the coalition lives (3,427 total, of which  2,287 of them were American) and all the American dollars (somewhere between $4 trillion and $6 trillion, including medical care for the wounded and repair/replacement of equipment) spent there will have in essence been squandered to no purpose.

Strongly recommended: Russia and the U.S. Negotiate the Future of Ukraine

Once again George Friedman, CEO of STRATFOR, the world's largest private intelligence network, has produced an outstanding and incisive analysis of a current event.  His article  Russia and the U.S. Negotiate the Future of Ukraine is a masterful analysis of the ongoing negotiations between Russia and the US over the fate of the Ukraine.  I strongly recommend this article.