Recommended: Can Putin’s Ukrainian Strategy Be Countered?

As Russian-inspired unrest continues to build in Eastern Ukraine, perhaps in preparation for yet another "protective" invasion from Russia, Walter Russel Mead has written an excellent article in The American Interest, Can Putin’s Ukrainian Strategy Be Countered?

Mead argues that Putin has probably outplayed the West again, leaving us with two choices, both unpalatable. We can ignore the Ukraine (make appropriate diplomatic noises, but essentially do nothing), or we can try to turn it into a vital, vibrant Western nation. The first choice has nasty side effects - would any ally trust American or EU resolve after that? The second choice may be impossible, since the ruling classes in the Ukraine are as profoundly corrupt as in Russia itself. Moreover, as Mead points out, such little economic vitality as the Ukraine possesses is all centered in the Eastern, Russian-dominated portion of the country.  The Western portion is about like Appalachia, and it would be a long, hard, and very, very expensive task to make it economically competitive and self-sustaining in the Western markets.

Perhaps, Mead suggests, the US and the EU will try to take the middle ground - do enough for the Ukraine so that politicians can't be accused of ignoring it, but not enough to make any real different. That, Mead argues, is probably what Putin is betting on, and he is probably right. In that sense, Putin has completely outplayed the West, which seems to lack any coherent strategy for dealing with the new Russia.