Iraq – Obama vs McCain

Now that it looks increasingly likely that the November election will be between Senator Barak Obama and Senator John McCain, here are some questions I’d pose to each candidate:

Barak Obama:

1. You are for withdrawing all our combat troops starting as soon as you enter office, with all troops out of Iraq by 2009 (see Obama’s position paper on his web site at http://www.barackobama.com/issues/pdf/IraqFactSheet.pdf). How would you handle –

1. The possible (likely?) full-scale Sunni-Shia bloodletting or ethnic cleansing/civil war that might come as soon as foreign troops are withdrawn?

2. The possible (likely?) development of a hostile Iraq under Iranian control, similar to the way Libya controls Lebanon?

3. The possible (likely?) development of a lawless Iraq in civil war becoming a new base and training ground for worldwide terrorists, just as Afghanistan did after the Soviets were ejected?

2. Having chosen to remove the one force that kept sectarian warfare and ethnic cleansing under control in Iraq (Saddam’s regime – brutal but effective), what moral responsibility do we have for providing security to ordinary Iraqis in its place? And if we withdraw before the security issue is resolved, what moral responsibility does America bear for any unpleasant consequences to ordinary Iraqis?

John McCain:

1. You are for increasing our troop strength in Iraq. (see McCain’s position paper on his web site at http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/fdeb03a7-30b0-4ece-8e34-4c7ea83f11d8.htm) It is certainly true, in hindsight, that we entered Iraq with too few troops to establish security after the main fighting was over. However:

1. Why should Iraqi politicians compromise as long as foreign troops are keeping things stable for them (see my Nov. 15 2007 post on Counterinsurgency Strategies)?

2. The bloody Sunni-Shia conflict has been going on for centuries. It is based on long-standing, gut-level fear and hatreds, and centuries of bloody tribal history. What can our continued presence possibly do to change that?

3. No doubt a large increase in American troop strength will suppress violence for as long as we remain, but then what? Many insurgent forces, like those of Moqtada Al-Sadr, will just wait until we leave to resume their activities. They can wait for a long time. Do we remain forever?

2. From a strategic point of view, Iraq has drained our military forces to the point where we would have difficulty dealing with conflict or threats anywhere else in the world. What is the strategic justification for continuing to pour scarce resources into Iraq just to maintain a sort of unstable status-quo, rather than withdrawing and rebuilding our forces against future and perhaps much more dangerous threats?