Recommended – The Next 100 Years

George Friedman is the founder and CEO of STRATFOR, a leading private intelligence and forecasting service. In this fascinating and provocative book (see book list in the sidebar for details), he lays out his predictions for the major geopolitical shifts in the next 100 years. He readily admits that predicting details is impossible, but argues that the overall sweep of history can be forecast with fair confidence from fundamental demographics, geopolitical factors, and historically stable cultural biases, prejudices, hatreds and affinities. And he proceeds to use these to lay out a probable future for the next 100 years.

Of particular interest is his assertion that America will most likely continue to be the dominant power over the next 100 years. He sees America as still an adolescent nation, unpredictable, often irrational, uncertain of itself, often overreacting, but vital and powerful. He predicts that over the next 100 years we will mature into a balanced, confident, relatively rational society, before eventually sliding into the sort of ineffective decadence that afflicts most Western European nations today. America’s continued dominance, he argues, will not come because of the wisdom and cunning of our leaders, but simply from geopolitical forces and in spite of a bumbling government and irrational populace.

He also identifies the likely power centers, driven by demographics and geopolitics, that will arise to challenge American dominance over the next century, centered around Turkey, Poland, Japan, and Mexico. And he explains why neither China nor Russia are likely to remain serous challengers to America over the coming decades.

All in all a fascinating set or arguments, well worth reading and pondering..