Spin vs Reality

The administration, for perfectly understandable political reasons, has been making much of any glimmer of good news (or not-bad news) that comes along. The 290,000 new jobs created in April are an example. One would think, from the administration’s PR campaign, that the recession was over.

REALITY: “Official” unemployment rose again last Friday from 9.7% to 9.9%. That is the “official” number. The actual number is much higher, around 17.4% if one counts people who are underemployed (the 9.2 million who would like to work more hours than they now have) and the 2.4 million who have just plain given up looking for work.

REALITY: Since World War II, the average recession has lasted 10 months, and the longest has been 16 months. Yet, 28 months after the last recession began, unemployment is still 10% and rising.

REALITY: Historically, deep recessions have typically had strong recoveries. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that economic growth in the first 3 quarters after the 1981-1982 recession was 5.1%, 9.3% and 8.5%. Yet, economic growth in the first 3 quarters after this last recession was 2.2%, 5.6% and 3.2%, not even half as much.

One can only conclude that the happy face the administration is putting on is pure spin – they are surely smart enough to understand that things aren’t really all that rosy, and that their attempts at economic stimulus haven’t really made much difference in the long-term problem – in fact the massive debt load that stimulus imposed may have made things worse in the long run.