Thursday, January 20, 2011

What it would take to eliminate the Federal budget deficit

The Republicans promised on the campaign trail to reduce the Federal deficit by $100 billion this year, though once they actually took control of the House at the beginning of this month they scaled that promise back to $50 billion, arguing that the fiscal year was already half over, so they couldn't cut more than half their promised $100 billion in this year. Of course, they have promised not to touch entitlements like Medicare or Social Security, nor the military budget, so they will be hard pressed to find even $50 billion they can really cut.

Representative Paul Ryan has an alternative budget plan to President Obama's, which seeks to cut $500 billion per year from the Federal deficit, and does so by cutting everywhere, including the entitlement programs and the military. It is unlikely to ever pass, of course, since it affects everyone's sacred cows. But if it did pass, would it be enough?

the 2010 Federal deficit was $1.3 trillion. That's not the Federal debt, which stands at around $14 trillion. That is just what we ADDED to the debt in 2010. So in fact we would need to reduce government spending and/or increase government revenues by about $1.3 trillion JUST TO KEEP EVEN, let alone pay down any of the existing debt.

So the Republican promise of $50 billion in cuts, even if it actually occurred (unlikely), is a drop in the bucket, and even Representative Ryan's "drastic" proposal to cut $500 billion per year isn't even half what is really needed JUST TO STOP INCREASING THE FEDERAL DEBT.

Democrats, of course, are no help at all in this discussion - they still want to INCREASE government spending for popular liberal initiatives, despite the ballooning debt.

What will it take for Congress and the administration to get real about this problem? State governors are finally getting real about the problem, but then they need to since most state constitutions prevent them from running permanent deficits. Perhaps we need a similar change in our Federal Constitution - something Congress can't simply bypass every six months as they do the debt ceiling.