Saturday, December 31, 2011

Quotes of the week

From Edward Teller:
Life improves slowly and goes wrong fast, and only catastrophe is clearly visible.

A fact is a simple statement that everyone believes. It is innocent, unless found guilty. A hypothesis is a novel suggestion that no one wants to believe. It is guilty, until found effective.
(attributed to Teller, but I'm not sure...)
In every foolproof system there is a fool.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Very Highly Recommended: Inside Job

I have just watched Charles Furgeson's Oscar-nominated documentary movie Inside Job, an exploration of the causes and consequences of the current financial crisis. This documentary is not comfortable to watch - in fact it made me absolutely furious! One can watch one prominent figure after another lie through their teeth or weasle-word evasions to the questions (though of course many of the main culprits simply refused to be interviewed).

Not only did the people who caused this crisis escape any consequences - most of them made obscene amounts of money even while their companies were being bailed out by the government, and in fact in the end we the taxpayers paid much of their obscene bonuses. Not only that, the system is thoroughly corrupted, from members of Congress to key government agency heads to government regulators to the rating agencies to the academic economists who advise them. Presidents Reagen, Clinton, Bush and and Obama have all contributed to the mess, as have key members of Congress from both parties. The ruling elites in Washington, on Wall Street, and in academia are getting fabulously wealthy while the rest of the nation continues to suffer.

This movie will not make you happy, but it is important to watch it anyway. If we the American voters are stupid enough to continue to elect people who do this to us, we get exactly what we deserve!!

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

50 startling facts about the US economy

The site The Economic Collapse has an interesting list of 50 fairly startling and uncomfortable facts about the US economy (reproduced below). Personally, I found #49 to be the most startling figure of all, and #2 and #11 to be the most worrying. The site seems to me a little too pessimistic in tone, but the facts listed are worth thinking about:

#1 A staggering 48 percent of all Americans are either considered to be "low income" or are living in poverty.

#2 Approximately 57 percent of all children in the United States are living in homes that are either considered to be "low income" or impoverished.

#3 If the number of Americans that "wanted jobs" was the same today as it was back in 2007, the "official" unemployment rate put out by the U.S. government would be up to 11 percent.

#4 The average amount of time that a worker stays unemployed in the United States is now over 40 weeks.

#5 One recent survey found that 77 percent of all U.S. small businesses do not plan to hire any more workers.

#6 There are fewer payroll jobs in the United States today than there were back in 2000 even though we have added 30 million extra people to the population since then.

#7 Since December 2007, median household income in the United States has declined by a total of 6.8% once you account for inflation.

#8 According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 16.6 million Americans were self-employed back in December 2006. Today, that number has shrunk to 14.5 million.

#9 A Gallup poll from earlier this year found that approximately one out of every five Americans that do have a job consider themselves to be underemployed.

#10 According to author Paul Osterman, about 20 percent of all U.S. adults are currently working jobs that pay poverty-level wages.

#11 Back in 1980, less than 30% of all jobs in the United States were low income jobs. Today, more than 40% of all jobs in the United States are low income jobs.

#12 Back in 1969, 95 percent of all men between the ages of 25 and 54 had a job. In July, only 81.2 percent of men in that age group had a job.

#13 One recent survey found that one out of every three Americans would not be able to make a mortgage or rent payment next month if they suddenly lost their current job.

#14 The Federal Reserve recently announced that the total net worth of U.S. households declined by 4.1 percent in the 3rd quarter of 2011 alone.

#15 According to a recent study conducted by the BlackRock Investment Institute, the ratio of household debt to personal income in the United States is now 154 percent.

#16 As the economy has slowed down, so has the number of marriages. According to a Pew Research Center analysis, only 51 percent of all Americans that are at least 18 years old are currently married. Back in 1960, 72 percent of all U.S. adults were married.

#17 The U.S. Postal Service has lost more than 5 billion dollars over the past year.

#18 In Stockton, California home prices have declined 64 percent from where they were at when the housing market peaked.

#19 Nevada has had the highest foreclosure rate in the nation for 59 months in a row.

#20 If you can believe it, the median price of a home in Detroit is now just $6000.

#21 According to the U.S. Census Bureau, 18 percent of all homes in the state of Florida are sitting vacant. That figure is 63 percent larger than it was just ten years ago.

#22 New home construction in the United States is on pace to set a brand new all-time record low in 2011.

#23 As I have written about previously, 19 percent of all American men between the ages of 25 and 34 are now living with their parents.

#24 Electricity bills in the United States have risen faster than the overall rate of inflation for five years in a row.

#25 According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, health care costs accounted for just 9.5% of all personal consumption back in 1980. Today they account for approximately 16.3%.

#26 One study found that approximately 41 percent of all working age Americans either have medical bill problems or are currently paying off medical debt.

#27 If you can believe it, one out of every seven Americans has at least 10 credit cards.

#28 The United States spends about 4 dollars on goods and services from China for every one dollar that China spends on goods and services from the United States.

#29 It is being projected that the U.S. trade deficit for 2011 will be 558.2 billion dollars.

#30 The retirement crisis in the United States just continues to get worse. According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute, 46 percent of all American workers have less than $10,000 saved for retirement, and 29 percent of all American workers have less than $1,000 saved for retirement.

#31 Today, one out of every six elderly Americans lives below the federal poverty line.

#32 According to a study that was just released, CEO pay at America's biggest companies rose by 36.5% in just one recent 12 month period.

#33 Today, the "too big to fail" banks are larger than ever. The total assets of the six largest U.S. banks increased by 39 percent between September 30, 2006 and September 30, 2011.

#34 The six heirs of Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton have a net worth that is roughly equal to the bottom 30 percent of all Americans combined.

#35 According to an analysis of Census Bureau data done by the Pew Research Center, the median net worth for households led by someone 65 years of age or older is 47 times greater than the median net worth for households led by someone under the age of 35.

#36 If you can believe it, 37 percent of all U.S. households that are led by someone under the age of 35 have a net worth of zero or less than zero.

#37 A higher percentage of Americans is living in extreme poverty (6.7%) than has ever been measured before.

#38 Child homelessness in the United States is now 33 percent higher than it was back in 2007.

#39 Since 2007, the number of children living in poverty in the state of California has increased by 30 percent.

#40 Sadly, child poverty is absolutely exploding all over America. According to the National Center for Children in Poverty, 36.4% of all children that live in Philadelphia are living in poverty, 40.1% of all children that live in Atlanta are living in poverty, 52.6% of all children that live in Cleveland are living in poverty and 53.6% of all children that live in Detroit are living in poverty.

#41 Today, one out of every seven Americans is on food stamps and one out of every four American children is on food stamps.

#42 In 1980, government transfer payments accounted for just 11.7% of all income. Today, government transfer payments account for more than 18 percent of all income.

#43 A staggering 48.5% of all Americans live in a household that receives some form of government benefits. Back in 1983, that number was below 30 percent.

#44 Right now, spending by the federal government accounts for about 24 percent of GDP. Back in 2001, it accounted for just 18 percent.

#45 For fiscal year 2011, the U.S. federal government had a budget deficit of nearly 1.3 trillion dollars. That was the third year in a row that our budget deficit has topped one trillion dollars.

#46 If Bill Gates gave every single penny of his fortune to the U.S. government, it would only cover the U.S. budget deficit for about 15 days.

#47 Amazingly, the U.S. government has now accumulated a total debt of 15 trillion dollars. When Barack Obama first took office the national debt was just 10.6 trillion dollars.

#48 If the federal government began right at this moment to repay the U.S. national debt at a rate of one dollar per second, it would take over 440,000 years to pay off the national debt.

#49 The U.S. national debt has been increasing by an average of more than 4 billion dollars per day since the beginning of the Obama administration.

#50 During the Obama administration, the U.S. government has accumulated more debt than it did from the time that George Washington took office to the time that Bill Clinton took office.

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Congress does it again....

Polls show public approval of Congress at an all-time low, and a recent 60 Minutes piece that pointed out that members of Congress are exempt from insider-trading rules, and some are apparently profiting handsomely from that exemption, doesn't help. So the Senate promptly passed a bill (finally) outlawing insider trading by members of Congress, but House Republicans are stalling about passing the same bill, hoping, I suppose, to stall until the public forgets about it entirely.

This is by no means the only example of Congress exempting itself from rules it imposes on everyone else. I noted last year that the Obamacare legislation contained language, tucked deep into the 2000+ pages of the bill, that exempted some key Democratic members of Congress and the their staffs from the bill.

It pretty clear we need a substantial overhaul of Congress, but it is by no means clear what mechanism can drive that overhaul. Congress certainly doesn't seem inclined to do it themselves.

Sunday, December 11, 2011

Recommended: A Nightmare of a Dream Team

Andrew Ferguson has an interesting piece in this week's Weekly Standard: A Nightmare of a Dream Team. He deals with President Obama's team of economic advisers, all of who are apparently proponents of the current fad in economics, "behavioral economics". As he points out, their theories don't seem to actually work well in practice. All in all an interesting discussion.

Friday, December 9, 2011

The EU treaty and the US

The new European Union treaty just negotiated today (and still not ratified by the 26 nations - Britain abstained) would impose a cap on the annual structural deficit (eg - the amount any member country can increase its sovereign debt in a year) of 0.5% of that nation's GDP.

If the US were to follow that guideline, with a 2010 GDP of about $14.58 Trillion, we would be limited to increasing the federal debt by no more than about $730 billion per year. The projected US 2011 deficit is about $1,300 billion, so to meet the proposed EU standard, we would need to cut expenditures by AT LEAST $570 billion per year. With this president and this Congress..... lots of luck!

Recommended: HALLELUJAH CORPORATIONS

On the same topic, I heartily recommend the YouTube video Hallelujah Corporations. We all need a good sense of humor to weather these difficult days.

Recommended: Obama’s Campaign for Class Resentment

Charles Krauthammer has another one of his pungent but accurate pieces on National Review On-line: Obama’s Campaign for Class Resentment. His point is that, faced with a myriad of national problems, many stemming from liberal overindulgence (entitlement programs that are bankrupting us, ballooning size of the federal government, an "affordable housing" scheme that was financially unsupportable), all President Obama can find to blame is "the rich", and his only solution is to soak the rich some more.

President Obama is a smart man, smart enough to know that if he confiscated everything the richest 1% had, it would make hardly any difference in the federal deficit. So, since he surely knows that, he can only be playing the class warfare card for political gain, to keep his liberal base happy, not because he really believes it would solve the problem. I am certainly not thrilled with the potential Republican nominees, but I do have to wonder if we the voters would be better off without a president who simply refuses to address the real national problems.

Thursday, December 8, 2011

Recommended: The Ancient Virtues and Modern Sins

Victor David Hanson is a bit of a curmudgeon, as I have noted before. But he is SMART and PERCEPTIVE, and it is often worth the time to wander through his ramblings for the gems he produces. Along these lines I recommend his Dec 4 article The Ancient Virtues and Modern Sins. It rambles a bit, but his points are valid.

Recommended: God is not One

Stephen Prothero's book God Is Not One: The Eight Rival Religions That Run the World - and Why It Matters (2010 - see book list on sidebar for details) is a useful introduction to the eight largest religions in the world. In particular, he makes the point that despite ecumenical attempts to argue that all religions are simply different paths to the same God, the eight major religions differ at a fundamental level - they see different problems in the world and seek different solutions to their different problems. Christians, for example, worry about sin and seek salvation, while Buddhists worry about suffering and seek nirvana (many without any god required) and Hindus worry about getting off the wheel of reincarnation.

I appreciate the motives for trying to see commonality among religions, given how bloodily divisive these religious differences have been throughout history, and even to this day. But I do notice that most of those who argue all religions are just different paths to the same god all seem to assume (tacitly, at least) that that god is in fact their own god.

Any book about religion is of course going to be contentious, but I think this is a useful approach to understanding the core of each of these major religions -- what they see as the problem in the world and how they try to address that problem.