Recommended: Hellfire, Morality and Strategy

George Freidman  of STRATFOR writes amazingly good analyses of current political events. His recent piece Hellfire, Morality and Strategy deals with the issue of killing jihadists from unmanned aerial vehicles, which is suddenly a hot topic of discussion these days. In a closely reasoned  piece, he argues that such killings are probably legal in international law, based on the existing conventions of war, because the jihadists don't identify themselves as soldiers  and hide among civilians. He argues that it may well be moral as well (excepting those who don't think any war is moral), considering that we face an implacable enemy who is determined to destroy us, and doesn't care how many civilians get killed in the process.

But he does question whether it is an effective strategy in the long run.  Here are two quotes from the piece that summarize his arguments well:.

The enemy strategy is to draw the United States into an extended conflict that validates its narrative the the United States is permanently at war with Islam. It wants to force the United States to engage in as many countries as possible.  From the U.S. point of view, unmanned aerial vehicles are the perfect weapon because they can attack the jihadist command structure without risk to ground forces. From the jihadist point of view as well, unmanned aerial vehicles are the perfect weapon because their efficiency allows the jihadists to lure the United States into other countries and, with sufficient manipulation, can increase the number of innocents who are killed.

and

The problem of unmanned aerial vehicles is that they are so effective from the U.S.point of view that they have become the weapon of first resort. Thus, the United States is being drawn into operations in new areas with what appears to be little cost.  In the long run, it is not clear that the cost is so little. A military strategy to defeat the jihadists is impossible.  At its root, the real struggle against the jihadists is ideological, and that struggle simply cannot be worn with Hellfire missiles.  A strategy of mitigation using airstrikes is possible, but such a campaign must not become geographically limitless.  Unmanned areal vehicles lead to geographical limitlessness.  That is their charm; that is their danger.