President Obama has repeatedly said that if the Syrian
government used chemical weapons it would cross a “red line” and there would be
consequences. It is pretty certain they now have, and so now the president is
boxed in to doing something in Syria or appearing to have just bluffed, with
significant consequences for other situations in places like North Korea and
Iran. So the president, perhaps in
cooperation with some allies, will no doubt make some sort of symbolic (but
probably largely ineffective) military strike
in Syria.
But one has to ask if chemical weapons really are
any different than other kinds of weapons. People are just as dead from bullets
or machetes or shrapnel or bombs as they are from chemical attacks. What,
really, is so different about chemical weapons in the end?
This is a repeat of the phobia about nuclear weapons, which
in fact killed less people in World War II than firebombing.
In fact, both nuclear weapons and chemical weapons are
really just terror weapons, not particularly effective battlefield weapons. In the case of nuclear weapons, there is a
tremendous amount of energy released, but it is too concentrated. On the
battlefield it would only be useful if the enemy conveniently massed all their troops
and tanks and artillery into a small area.
It might, for example, conceivably have been useful if the Soviet Army
had ever invaded Germany through the Fulda Gap, thereby concentrating its
forces into a very small area. And it
might conceivably be useful against an aircraft carrier group. But otherwise it is just a terror weapon
against civilians in cities.
Chemical weapons are also of questionable use in the
battlefield. Yes, it hampers the enemy, who have to wear cumbersome protective
gear, but then so do the approaching friendly forces, since the winds can carry
the gases or aerosols back into one’s own lines as well. Again, chemical weapons are really just terror
weapons, not particularly effective battlefield weapons.
The real concern is that rebel forces will get their hands
on Syria’s stock of chemical weapons and they will pass into the hands of
terrorists who might well like to use them against civilians in cities. That concern has been there all along, not
just now. And if President Obama really wants to deal with that threat he will
have to send troops in (up to 60,000 troops by one general’s reckoning) to capture
and remove those stocks before the rebels get them. He doesn’t seem prepared to do that.
It is true that there are no good choices for the administration
in the Syrian situation, just bad and worse choices. But just staying out of the whole mess may
well be the best of the bad choices, despite the ongoing slaughter. The only effective way for us to stop the
slaughter would be a full-scale invasion, giving us another Iraq. We can do without that!.