The administration is still trying to sell the nuclear “framework”
that has supposedly been agreed upon with Iran.
I say “supposedly” because as time has passed it has become increasingly
clear that Iran has no intention of agreeing in any final deal to some of the
key terms proposed. The supreme leader has made it clear he will not agree to
any deal which doesn’t remove all sanctions on the day the deal is signed. The Republican Guard has made it abundantly clear
that they will allow no inspectors on any military sites – which happens to
include many nuclear facilities. In fact, it is pretty clear from recent Iranian
speeches and statements that Iran really cares much less about getting a deal
that the President, which is always a bad negotiating position to be in. I see that David Brooks has much the same
view in his New York Times Op-Ed
piece The Revolution Lives! , and that two eminent forign policy expers, Henry
Kissinger and George Shultz express similar
misgivings in their Wall Street Journal piece
The Iranian Deal and its Consequences.
Meanwhile Iran continues to stir up trouble and arm and fund
jihadists throughout the Middle East. Iranian generals and "experts" are popping up all over the place in all the current Middle East trouble spots. From a strategic point of view we may be
better off trying to keep sanctions in place to at least slow Iranian
intrusions than agree to a weak nuclear deal that freed Iran from the
sanctions, even though it will be a tough job to keep effective sanctions in
place.
I rather suspect the President’s sudden about-face this week on the issue of allowing Congress to vote on any deal is a back-door way of trying to cover his rear when it becomes clear that there is no good deal to be had. If the negotiations fail, he can always blame Congress, and especially the Republicans. On the other hand, Congress is (rightly, I think) suspicious that the President is too focused on getting something to bolster his rather anemic "legacy" rather than looking out for the nation's welfare. So forcing a deal to go through Congressional scrutiny is probably not a bad thing in this case. And my current bet is that Congress, including a significant number of Democrats, will not feel the proposed deal is strong enough.
So we will have to see if Secretary Kerry can manage to cobble together an acceptable deal by the June deadline. I would bet he won't. In fact, in the end he may not be able to craft any deal at all, and that may not be a bad thing in the current circumstances.
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