Predictably the European press is outraged that Donald Trump
scolded European leaders at the recent NATO summit. He used blunter words than
I might have chosen, but in fact he was perfectly right about his central point
– Europe, with a GDP about as large as the US ($19.14 trillion in 2017 vs $19.39
trillion for the US) and a population almost a third larger (511.8 million in
the EU vs 326 million in the US in 2017), is incapable of defending itself
without US support. In fact they can
hardly move what few troops and equipment they have to a battle front without
US logistical support. This despite the fact that a resurgent Russia threatens
them far more than it threatens the US.
NATO members (most of the EU) each pledged decades ago to
spend at least 2% of GDP on their own military preparedness. By comparison, the
US spends about 3.6% of GDP on our military. But although all NATO countries
pledged to spend at least 2% of their GDP on their militaries, only 6 of the 28
members actually do so (Canada, Britain, France, Turkey, Greece, and
Poland). And the wealthiest country in
the EU, Germany, spends a paltry 1.2% of its GDP on its military, which as a
result has, as of 2017, not a single operable submarine or transport plane.
According to a recent report from their parliament’s own military commissioner,
the German military doesn’t even have enough protective vests, winter clothing
or tents to participate in a NATO mission if called up, and they currently have
21,000 vacant officer posts. In a NATO exercise last year in Norway German troops were so short of equipment that they had to use broomstick handles as simulated guns.
Europe has for decades relied on the US to protect it from
Russian incursions. When Europe was weak, after the devastation of World War
II, that made sense. It makes no sense
now. Europe is wealthy enough to fund its own defense, and Trump is perfectly
right to rub their noses in that fact.
In fact presidents in both parties at least from Gerald Ford
up to and through the Obama administration have raised this point, timidly,
with NATO repeatedly. But of course they were so timid that NATO ignored them. All
Trump has done is make the point forcefully for once. And guess what, NATO members
promptly had an emergency meeting to plan increasing their military capabilities. Of course it will go nowhere unless the US
keeps the pressure on.
And of course even if they finally, with much prodding, meet
their 2% goal, it may not be spent effectively. The same problem that bedevils
the EU’s financial system bedevils its military systems – 28 countries each
doing their own thing with poor coordination. So the Turks, for example, are
buying Russian S-400 air defense missile systems that don’t interoperate with
anything NATO has. (Turkey is not a member of the EU, yet, but is a member of
NATO).
So yes, Europeans were upset to have been called out so
bluntly. But asking them nicely over the past few decades hasn’t worked, so
perhaps it will take Trump’s bluntness to actually make them meet their commitments.
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