Saudi Arabia and the Jamal Khashoggi murder

President Trump is under a lot of pressure these days from politicians and activists to sanction Saudi Arabia over the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. What this reveals, more than anything else, is how naïve most of the political class and most activists are.

First of all, oil prices depend heavily on how much oil Saudi Arabia chooses to pump. At the moment, at our request, they have increased production to help make up for declining Iranian production (on account of US sanctions), thereby keeping oil prices lower. If we sanction Saudi Arabia over this issue, they can simply pump less oil and let prices rise, which actually helps them while it hurts us. And Russia would love it, because it would help their financial situation.

Second, Arab regimes may fight among themselves, but they pull together in the face of external interference. If we try to force Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman out over this issue we will be seen as an external power meddling in Middle East affairs, and probably most of the Middle East regimes will turn hostile to us for a long time to come – hardly a smart move.  It would be nice if some of the other princes unseated him, but it will be terrible for us if we are seen to be the reason he loses his position.

Third, we need Saudi Arabia to help us contain Iran. Pissing them off at this point risks destroying the coalition we have been painfully and slowly assembling to meet the Iranian threat.

Fourth, Saudi Arabia is already playing Russia and the US off against each other. We are trying to limit Russian influence in the Middle East, and at the moment we have more influence than Russia. The last thing we need at the moment is an ill-considered move that drives Saudi Arabia into Russia’s arms.

So yes, let’s condemn the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. There has probably already been enough bad press for Saudi Arabia, especially from Turkey, on this issue that they have probably figured out that this ought not to be tried again. But there are a lot of complex and intertwined issues here, as is usually the case with Middle East politics. Let’s remember that at the moment we need Saudi Arabia more than they need us, and let’s not cut off our nose to spite our face.