Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Climate Change - yet again

As a friend pointed out about my last post, the French have a peculiar attachment to street demonstrations, many of them violent  (perhaps a residual national pride still in the 1789-1799 French Revolution, or perhaps just because they are French!),  so really the current street violence in France may not be indicative of how the rest of the world might react. A valid point. And of course there are other factors at work as well - the French middle class and rural class have been under financial pressure for years now, so it's not just the petrol tax that is at issue, French president Marcon has already shaken up the labor markets and unions and is highly unpopular at the moment, and the demonstrations have been taken over by thugs and fringe elements, which accounts for much of the violence and destruction. 

Still, the elites of the world are under pressure everywhere. Trump's election, the rise of the socialist Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic party, the Brexit vote and the political chaos that has followed in Britain, and the rise of right-wing parties all across Europe are all symptoms of an international order under stress, largely because of growing inequality - in both political power and wealth- between a small elite class and the rest (the so-called 99%). And all of this unrest is being amplified by the new social media.  Imposing the radical changes recommended in the recent climate report would be hard enough in good times when the populace was prosperous and happy; in the current stressed atmosphere any additional hardships will just feed the anger and resentment at whatever party is in power.

I don't expect this problem to be resolved quickly. I think the world order will continue to be disrupted for decades yet, and I think there are other forces in the wings which will continue to feed it, including increased automation (which will put more people out of work, and perhaps depress wages for the rest), and the demographic changes which are beginning to depopulate many first world nations, which will badly upset the social safety nets and tax bases of nations.