Thursday, January 17, 2019

Recommended: The Absent Superpower

Peter Zeihan's 2014 book The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder pretty accurately predicted the current global disorder. His new 2016 book The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America carries on the same theme, but updated to account for the unexpected success of fracking, and its profound effects on the world order.

The beginning of the book is a tutorial on fracking, and how it has become unexpectedly successful, making North America essentially hydrocarbon (oil and gas) independent of the rest of the world. The rest of the book explores the implication of that independence - the breakdown of the 1944 Bretten Woods agreements now that America doesn't have to bribe nations to ally with us against the Soviet Union (essentially the deal was open access to American markets and American-funded protection of maritime trade routes in return for alliance against the communists).  The short version is that North America and a few of our allies (Great Britain, Australia, etc) will do fine, but without the umbrella of American protection the rest of the world will be in a world of hurt.

Well worth reading and pondering.