Now that Elizabeth Warren has risen to be a
real contender among
the Democratic candidates, with Bernie Sanders fading (though he
will probably
retain a die-hard 20% or so base anyway) and Joe Biden
struggling, we probably
ought to take her proposals more seriously.
The Economist had
this chart in this
week’s issue, which featured a lead article on Warren:
The point of the chart is that her proposal
to raise more revenue
by taxing the rich and corporations more comes nowhere near to
covering her “Medicare
for all” proposal. And
by the way, their
10-year estimate of about $34 trillion is in pretty good
agreement with other
independent estimates. The Mercatus Center at George Mason
University estimates
the 10-year cost of the Sanders/Warren proposal at $32.6 to
$38.8 trillion,
depending on several assumptions (the lower range assumes some
unlikely things).
The Urban Institute
estimates it at just
over $32 trillion.
But the article Dave Lennon sent around a
while ago from Spike
Jones made a good point. One should offset the federal cost of
Medicare-for-all
by the amount people now spend privately. If the costs simply
shift from insurance
and medical payments to taxes (assuming Warren would raise taxes
enough), then the
total cost to an individual is about the same.
The Urban Institute study does estimate the
10-year amount
spent privately (insurance plus medical spending) at about $21
trillion. If that is
accurate, then the net 10-year cost
of the Medicare-for-all proposal is more like $11-15 trillion,
much less but
still more than Warren’s new revenue would cover.
Of course, this all may be moot. Warren faces
three serious obstacles
to getting elected. First, she is a woman, and US society is
still sexist
enough to make that a serious obstacle. Second, she threatens
the interests of
a lot of big corporations and rich people, which is reflected in
the fact that
she is not getting the support of big donors. Promising not to
take donations
from corporations and rich people was easy for her – they aren’t
offering.
Since the Democratic National Committee is in dire financial
straits, she can’t
depend on them either to help much in the general election. Third and finally, her
proposals would almost certainly
require substantial tax increases on everyone, not just the rich
and
corporations, and/or a massive increase in the already
ballooning national debt.
That will be a hard sell in today’s world.
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