Sunday, February 23, 2020

Firing the Acting Director of National Intelligence

Watching the media fuss over President Trump’s firing of Acting Director of National Intelligence Adm. Joseph Maguire, and his replacement with Ambassador Richard Grenell, I am reminded of Henry Kissinger’s comment that “Even a paranoid can have enemies” Trump is certainly paranoid, but just as certainly he has real enemies among the government bureaucrats that comprise the “deep state”.  It is hardly surprising that he would want to replace those trying to bring him down with leaks, well-timed releasees of embarrassing information, and the like with people more loyal, if not to him personally at least to the office of the President. I’m sure any other president would do the same, and would be foolish not to.Trump's methods are a little bizarre sometimes, but his actions seem to me perfectly reasonable under the circumstances.

Now that we know much more about the dubious provenance of the Steele document, the fabricated claims of Russian or Ukrainian support for Trump in the last election, and the FBI’s less-than-honest presentation to the secret FISA court to allow them to surveille a member of Trump’s campaign, it is not surprising that he doesn’t trust the intelligence community or the FBI. Of course the Russians are trying to meddle in our elections, just as we try to meddle in theirs. They weren’t very effective in the last election, despite the attempts of liberals to blame their embarrassing loss on Russian interference. They probably won’t be very effective in this election either, at least compared to the far more virulent and effective disinformation campaigns being waged on social media by domestic activists and campaigns.

There is also a lot of hand-wringing in the media about the exit of so many senior foreign policy and intelligence people. I don’t see it as much of a loss to lose the foreign policy establishment that so mishandled Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union, or that got us into the endless Middle East wars. I don’t see it as much of a loss to lose the intelligence establishment that missed anticipating most of the important world events of the past few decades, from the fall of the Soviet Union to the Arab Spring uprisings. Institutions can get ossified and bound by groupthink, and need occasionally to be cleaned out and given a fresh start.  Whether the people who replace those who have left will be any better is an interesting question which only time will answer, but certainly a new start was overdue.