Friday, October 16, 2020

The Big Short

I just watched the 2015 movie The Big Short, which is a retelling of hedge fund manager Michael Burry’s recognition, before anyone else, of the housing crisis that set off the 2008 market crash. It is quite a good movie, well worth watching. But it is depressing in what it reveals of the level of fraud and greed in Wall Street and in the government.

Of course the government – meaning us taxpayers – bailed out the banks in 2008-2009. But in the end no banker was ever charged (in fact there were millions in bonuses paid out to those who caused the crash – and paid out of the taxpayer bailout money!), nothing happened to the credit rating agencies who participated in the fraud, nothing happened to the government regulators who looked the other way, and the banks which were deemed to be “to big to fail” are now bigger than ever (only 10 banks now account for more than 70% of US banking activity). In other words, as usual those with good Washington connections got away scot-free, and even got richer. This isn’t a partisan issue; the problem grew under the Bush administration, and the bailout and subsequent failure to punish anyone came under the Obama administration, so both Republicans and Democrats were complicit in this.

Along the same lines, there is much fuss among Democrats about Trump (supposedly) not paying any taxes for the past ten years. It is outrageous if true, but in fact it is minor compared to the huge corporations who regularly don’t pay any taxes, including in 2018 Chevron, Delta Airlines, IBM, Gannett Publishing, Whirlpool, Eli Lilly, FedEx, Honeywell, Halliburton, Starbucks, Amazon, and at least 80 more. (see here for an incomplete 2018 list, or here for a 2019 list). Not that they have done so illegally – they are simply using the many loopholes that have been provided for them by a complicit Congress, often in return for generous campaign contributions to various politicians.

Politics has always been a dirty business, with scandal and corruption inevitable where so much power and money is concentrated. Trump was elected in 2016 because a sizeable proportion of the population thought they were being screwed by the system – and they were right, but probably had no idea just how many ways they were being screwed. We may get Biden for this next administration, but while he isn’t quite the sociopath or egomaniac that Trump is, he is nevertheless tainted by the way his son used his connections to enrich himself in China and the Ukraine. And of course Congress will remain as tainted as ever by campaign contributions from corporations and special interest groups, for which favors in return are expected.

I am normally an optimist (I was once accused by a colleague of being a “malignant optimist”), but I find the sleaze and corruption of Washington politics these days to be depressing.  Politicians lying is one thing - that is more or less expected in politics – but the way the Washington elite manage to protect one another from the consequences of their many misdeeds is really frustrating. Whoever wins this next election, things in Washington won't really change. If Biden wins there will be welcome changes in style, but the underlying corruption won't change no matter what campaign promises are made  - there are too many people and institutions involved and on the take.