For context let me offer the opinion that one of America’s core problems these days is that on most important issues we have no rational, widely-debated, thought-out national policy; we are just reacting day-by-day, usually on the basis of mindless partisan ideology, media-driven focus, or momentary emotion. We are not alone in this – most nations seem to operate this way – but it is one of the things that is impeding our ability as a nation and a culture to adapt to the rapidly changing world.
I would argue that this applies to our immigration policy. We have never had a rational national debate about just whom we ought to allow to emigrate to the United States, and whom we ought to exclude. Well, we had better have that debate, because bad as the problem is right now, it is about to get much, much worse over the coming decades.
Why? For at least two reasons:
First, because of global warming. Global warming is almost certainly going to happen, despite all the empty promises made by nations in the Paris agreement (see, for example the 2019 Forbes article here) Our current worldwide civilization is built on the profligate use of energy, and it is exceedingly unlikely that we can change human behavior enough and in time to halt climate change. Most climate activists are fairly naïve about just how drastic the worldwide lifestyle changes would have to be to make a significant difference, and about how difficult it would be politically to impose those lifestyle changes on populations. We have trouble even getting people to wear masks in a pandemic. Think about what it would take to get Americans to give up, among other things, travel, meat, air conditioning, social media including their phones, and most consumer goods, or for India or China to abandon their drive to modernize - yet that is the level of change that would be required.
And in fact many climate researchers think we have already passed the point where we can make much difference. No one is quite sure how bad the global warming will be, and exactly what effects it will have, but it is already clear it will disrupt crops and hence the economies of many countries, and rising sea levels may displace millions of people who live in low-lying areas, and these effects will inevitably create serious social and political unrest, and perhaps even local wars, which will drive millions to seek to migrate to more favorable lands.
Second, because of the collapse of the global order that has prevailed since the end of World War II. Peter Zeihan’s books and lectures explain this fairly clearly (watch his YouTube lectures here, or here, for example, if you are not acquainted with his works), and most other geopolitical experts pretty much agree with his overall view, though of course they differ on details. The consequences of the impending breakdown in global trade will leave many nations short of energy and food, providing yet another impetus for mass migrations to better lands. (It will also drive many back to using coal as their only available domestic energy source, exacerbating the climate change problem.)
The upshot is that the pressure on our borders, for both legal and illegal immigration, will become more intense in coming decades. Clearly we cannot accept hundreds of millions of immigrants. It would disrupt our economy, our culture, and probably lead to political unrest even worse than we have today. So there are hard choices to be made about just whom we will admit, under what circumstances, and with what sort of social support to help them assimilate and find work. On what basis should we make those choices? That is what needs a national debate, as free as possible from mindless ideology or partisan political point-scoring and virtue-signaling.
And it needs to be made by those with real skin in the game, who will suffer the effects of whatever policy is adopted along with everyone else. Thus far immigration policy for the most part has been set by politicians and bureaucrats who are relatively insulated from the consequences of their decisions. It’s not their jobs that would be threatened, their cultures that would be disrupted, nor their neighborhoods that would be invaded. That’s why there is so much political unrest around the immigration issue.
Will we ever get such a debate? It seems unlikely in the current highly-polarized political atmosphere. But we had better find a way to have this discussion, because the problem is about to get a lot worse!
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