The mid-term congressional elections are still 17 months away (November 2022), and a week can be an eternity in politics. Still, with Democratic control of congress balanced on a knife-edge, and Republicans almost unanimous in opposing most of president Biden’s initiatives, it would only take the switch of a single seat in the Senate, or 2 or 3 seats in the House, to completely stymie the progressive agenda. And historically the party in power almost always loses seats in the first mid-term election after a new president takes office.
It used to be true that congressional races mostly turned on local issues, but that is less true these days when the national news and the internet have permeated everywhere, and local congressional candidates are boosted or damaged more by their parties’ national image than they used to be. So now days a congressional candidate’s chances can be significantly affected by what some other party member in some other state says or does.
There are always unexpected Black Swans in politics (wars, 9/11-type events, scandals, etc.), which can dramatically change the landscape even at the last minute. So any prediction this far in advance is pretty uncertain. Still, one can already begin to see the emerging issues that might shape the mid-terms.
The border issue
On the border crisis, which is a crisis, even though the mainstream press has been ignoring it as much as possible, May 2021 saw the largest number of apprehensions of illegal immigrants in 20 years, over 180,000. There is an informative graphic from the Washington Post here that shows the trends.
A new Harvard/Harris poll shows that 80% of Americans think the border is in crisis, 68% said that signals from Biden’s White House are encouraging illegal immigration, and 55% believe that former President Donald Trump’s border closing policies should have been left in place. The poll also found that 85 percent want stronger borders, compared to 15 percent who support weaker borders.
And vice-president Harris’s two-day tour of Mexico and Guatemala and her brief “photo op” visit to the border last week have been widely derided by liberals and conservatives alike as just ineffective political theater. Thus far nothing the administration has done, or not done, has seemed to stem the tide. This will clearly be a potent issue for Republicans in the upcoming mid-term elections, especially in the states on the Mexican border – Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California.
The inflation issue
On the inflation issue, annualized inflation (that is, projecting the inflation for the first half of 2021 to the full year) stands at about 8% and climbing. The administration and the Fed keep assuring us this is temporary, a result of COVID supply chain disruptions. They certainly hope so, but Bank of America projects that it will remain high for at least 4 years.
One concern is that high inflation will push up the amount required to service the federal debt, which at today’s interest rate of about 2% stands at about $378 billion per year. The average maturity on the federal debt currently is about 65 months, so it will take a while before enough of that debt is rolled over at higher interest rates to begin to affect the federal budget, but at even 4% average interest rate servicing the federal debt would eat up practically all the discretionary federal budget (currently around $600 billion); at 8% or above it would be fiscal disaster. So unless inflation drops dramatically in the next 17 months, this too will be a potent Republican issue in the mid-term elections. Economic issues tend to be the most important to the average voter, and voters are already noticing the higher prices in the store and at the pump.
On the other hand, if the economy is fully recovered and booming by the time of the mid-terms, wages are up, and unemployment is down, Democratic candidates will probably get a significant boost from that even with higher inflation.
The crime issue
Violent crime is up, although in fact it has been falling for decades now, so even with the recent increase it is still well below the rates of the 1990s. In 2020 Chicago murders increased 50%, Los Angeles murders increased 30%, and New York murders increased 40%. Nationwide, 2020 murders were up 36.7% over the previous year. Most of the more dramatic violent crime increases are restricted to a few large cities, like New York and Portland and Minneapolis, but the 7/24 national news cycle headlines crime stories in these cities, so it has a much large effect nationwide than is probably warranted.
On its own the crime increase might not be much of an election issue except in a few big cities, but with the far left pushing the “defund the police” narrative it will likely be a more potent issue, especially if the Democrats can’t keep the more extreme progressives like AOC quiet on the issue. And of course “law and order” has always been a winning topic for Republicans.
The Afghanistan withdrawal issue
There was never going to be a good time to withdraw from Afghanistan. It was always going to be messy, but we probably should have done it long ago anyway. Whether it becomes a mid-term election issue depends on whether the media finds a “Saigon moment” (the photo of the long line of desperate people trying to get on the last helicopter on the roof of the American Embassy in Saigon) to trumpet or not. The Biden administration is trying to evacuate the thousands of interpreters, with their families, who helped American forces, and who would probably be executed by the Taliban if they stayed. If that comes off poorly, this could be a damaging issue for the mid-terms.
The critical race theory issue
Critical Race Theory is an outgrowth of an esoteric academic movement called postmodernism that developed in France in the 1940s in art, and then in the 1960s spread to the social sciences. It has a complex history, tracing back to Karl Marx’s work on class structure in the mid-1800s. In its present form as critical race theory it teaches that American society is inherently racist, which is certainly true (most societies are inherently racist against one ethnic group or another – it is part of the inherent xenophobia of the human species). Critical race theory is complex, even abstruse, and has many different flavors depending on who it teaching it. I seriously doubt that many parents, or many teachers either, really understand it. I have read a serious academic study of it, and I have trouble really grasping it.
But the movement to install teaching of critical race theory in schools, especially at the K-12 level, is producing serious backlash from parents, who think, whether correctly or not, that it is teaching children to hate America and white children to feel guilty because of their skin color. Whether parents have an accurate view of what is being taught or not, this issue is emotional and may well become a significant election issue.
The redistricting effect
Redistricting, based on the recent census, will occur for most states by the time of the mid-terms. I say “most states” because there are almost certain to be court challenges to some of the more extreme gerrymandering that will be attempted, and these issues may not be fully resolved by November of 2022. Overall, Republicans will have a slight advantage here, because they control more statehouses (61 state chambers vs 37 chambers for Democrats) and more governors (27 Republican vs 23 Democrat).
The Trump wild card
Donald Trump is a wild card in this election. He may be indicted by the mid-terms. He may even be jailed by then. On the other hand, he still has a substantial following. But it is hard to predict whether he would use his influence with this following to defeat Democrats, or to defeat Republicans he doesn’t like. So far he seems to be aiming at Republicans he feels were disloyal to him. Nor is it clear yet how much influence he retains now that he is out of office and off most social media. So that is why he is a wild card.
The COVID non-issue
I would guess that COVID policy is not likely to be a significant issue. COVID will do what it will do. There may well still be local spikes among the 30% or so who for one reason or another refuse to get vaccinated, but I would judge that all the politically-significant effects have already happened. It is unlikely that Biden could get another massive COVID-relief bill through, or that he will feel the need to even try. And voter memories are notoriously short, so the effect of the relief checks he sent out will have mostly dissipated by the time the mid-term elections roll around.
17 months is a long time in politics, and no doubt other issues will arise that may significantly affect the mid-term elections, but these are the ones I am watching right now.
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