I would hope that our Washington political class is thinking several steps ahead about this Ukrainian crisis, though past performance in both parties doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. Here is what I see:
The Ukrainians have shown exceptional skill and resilience against the Russian invaders, and the Russians have shown unexpectedly poor performance thus far, but in the end, even if they don’t get much better at their logistics and operational planning, Russia’s sheer numbers will almost surely overwhelm the Ukrainians defenses eventually. And I would expect the civilian casualties to be huge, especially from the urban warfare as they take the major cities, which will further outrage the world.
It is always possible that a ceasefire will be negotiated, but given the terms Putin would probably insist on, I think it unlikely.
So once the Ukraine has been subdued, with perhaps the eastern half of the country occupied (I don’t think the Russians can manage to occupy the entire country), an unpopular pro-Moscow puppet government installed, and perhaps a brutal insurgency in progress, where do things go from there?
The harsh sanctions will have begun to take their toll, which probably means the Russians will have increasing difficulties maintaining their civilian and military infrastructure. If we are successful in confiscating most of the major oligarch’s wealth hidden in the west, we will have a group of very powerful people really pissed at Putin. And we will probably have an increasingly desperate and unpredictable Putin in charge, unless someone can arrange for him to have an unfortunate accident.
So how does the West take advantage of that situation to hasten the removal of the current ruling regime in Russia? And what is the follow-on plan, once that is done, so as to not repeat the same mistake we made with the fall of the Soviet Union? How do we draw a new Russian government into the Western world as a peaceful partner, rather than simply humiliate them and then ignore them as we did last time?
And if a paranoid and out-of-touch Putin does continue on and try to invade one of the NATO members next, how will we respond? Will we just defend on NATO territory, or will we go after the Russian military infrastructure as well. And will that initiate a nuclear strike from Putin? And should that fear deter us? If it does, he has an immeasurable advantage, but in truth the Russians (but perhaps not Putin) would presumably be as loath to lose Moscow or St Petersburg as we would be to lose Washington or New York.
These are hard questions. I hope someone smart is thinking about them.
Posts
