Monday, December 11, 2006

The clash of civilizations

This problem in the Middle East is not about Islam. If the Middle East were Christian instead of Muslim, it would be just as easy to cherry-pick passages from the Bible to motivate and justify suicide bombers and wars against infidels as it is to cherry-pick them from the Qur'ān. The crusades proved that point.

The Middle East’s core problem is that they are stuck in the middle ages culturally, but with access to modern technology. They are still ruled by religious leaders or hereditary autocrats. The populace is still mostly poorly educated, and driven by age-old feuds and hatreds and tribal loyalties and mythologies. Populations are exploding but opportunities for jobs and the self-esteem that goes with jobs are not.

Some Middle East nations got a one-time bonus. They got oil. If their leaders had been wise, they would have used all the bonus wealth to educate their people and move their nations into the modern age. Instead they have mostly squandered it, and when the oil runs out (soon enough) they will be back where they started, except with more people than they can feed.

This is not a war between Christianity and Islam. Islam is just a handy lever for ambitious leaders in the Middle East to manipulate a credulous and restless population to their own ends, which is mostly about gaining and holding power. And modern technology – cell phones, TV, the internet, modern weapons – just expand their reach.

If we divert ourselves into thinking this is about religion, we miss the point, and the counter-policies we develop will be ineffective.