The arrogance of certainty

I can think of nothing more intellectually arrogant than absolute certainty. At root, it is the arrogance of being certain that you are right and everyone else is wrong that is the core error in many religions and political philosophies. Certainty has probably fueled more killings and wars and general misery throughout history than any other cause, including simple expansionist greed. And certainty lies at the core of many if not most of the really stupid and self-defeating things people have done through history (including our own recent history).

In fact, we are never more likely to be in error than when we are certain, because as soon as we are certain we stop thinking, stop accepting new information and evidence, and even become hostile and resistant to any data or argument that challenges what we believe.

It is reasonable be confident or even very confident about things if the evidence warrants it, but we understand that even things we are very confident about sometimes turn out differently. But when you meet absolute certainty you meet a closed mind!