Complexity and politics

I’m endlessly amazed by the complexity of human societies. No doubt lower forms of life have far more social complexity than we know – apparently even plant cells communicate (chemically) with their neighbors in very complex ways. But the complexity of human societies is massively enriched by our expectations and reasoning and mythology, so that we are affected not only by current conditions, but also by our expectations and fears of conditions we think might exist in the future.

I think of this as I watch the current political campaign unfold. Clearly a winning political message is only very loosely tied to real conditions in the world – it is much more tied to the expectations and fears and mythologies current in the society of voters. And indeed, the winners will have to govern by means of these same expectations and fears and mythologies – that is their leverage in the political process.

Iraq is a case in point. The real facts are that we overthrow Saddam’s government relatively easily, at relatively little cost in lives or money. That success in turn left us in the hopeless position of trying to quell a series of bitter and intertwined civil and religious wars (Sunni vs Shia, Arab vs Kurd, Arab vs Persians) that has raged, with intermittent pauses, for centuries. Whether we count that as a success or a failure depends on our aspirations (eg. to be the world’s policeman?) and our mythologies (eg. everyone ought to have a democratic government?).

So the interesting matters to study in this election are not the politician’s messages – those are just tailored to reflect the opinions and prejudices and mythologies of their target voter blocks. The interesting matters to study are the issues and positions that energize and motivate the voting public itself. Those issues tell us far more about who we are as a society than anything a politician may promise.