Recommended: The Firestorm Ahead

As always, Immanuel Wallerstein's views differ from Washington's "conventional wisdom". His September article The Firestorm Ahead is worth reading, though it won't be very comforting. He argues that American efforts in the Middle East are about to come to pieces, and that the cascading consequences from Iraq to Afghanistan to Pakistan will cause a political firestorm in American politics in the next two to three years.

His core facts are correct - (a) the American military is finding it hard to work under the existing Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with Iraq. Not much of this makes the evening news, but it certainly is clear if one reads the military journals and soldier's blogs from Iraq. (b) the Afghans and the Pakistanis both would like to see America out of their affairs, despite the public statements of their leaders to the contrary. Whether the conclusions he draws from these core facts are accurate we will know soon enough.