President Obama's Problem

Things don't look very good for the Democratic majority in the upcoming mid-term elections. Left-wing columnists try their best to find a positive spin on events, and there certainly are a constant swirl of side issues to excite the press, such as the current debate over President Obama's comments about the proposed New York mosque. But in the end, one issue and one issue only is going to dominate the election results, and that issue is the economy.

Unemployment is high, and shows no signs of easing anytime soon, and certainly not before the election. Economic growth is slowing, falling well below the administration's predictions earlier in the year. The projected federal deficit, already astronomically high, is growing steadily as a result of the lower than expected tax revenues.

Democrats will try their best to blame this on the previous administration, but by now Democrats own these problems in the public mind, so the blame-Bush argument doesn't resonate very much anymore.

Other issues will have a peripheral effect -- public discontent with the health care bill, anger at the outsized Wall Street bonuses for the very people who set off the financial crisis, worry about the massive spending spree of this Democratic Congress, worry about the huge federal debt, discontent over the Iraq and Afghanistan wars -- but in the end it will be the state of the economy that decides the overall election results, and the economy isn't likely to be any better in the next few months.

The Republicans may or may not take control of one or both houses of Congress, but they will certainly make enough gains to halt any further left-wing programs, and perhaps even enough to allow them to deny funding for things they don't agree with, like the health care bill.

The interesting question is whether President Obama will react to loss of control of Congress by moving to the center, as did President Clinton, in order to at least get some bills passed. That would, of course, infuriate his far-left supporters, but might begin to pick up some bipartison support. Or will he remain ideologically committed to more liberal programs that simply can't get the votes anymore in Congress? It poses an interesting problem for the president.