The Problem of a Nuclear Iran

There is no doubt that the nuclear threat posed by Iran is a difficult problem. Once Iran has a working nuclear weapon, the already-impossible Middle East becomes several orders of magnitude more difficult, and the range of policy and military options open to ourselves and our allies is sharply reduced. There are no good options open to us now, but once Iran has a nuclear weapon, there are only very bad options left.

Consider. If we do nothing, Iran gets a working nuclear capability in perhaps 1-3 more years. Once Iran has a nuclear capability, probably many of our smaller Middle Eastern allies will find it safer to side with Iran than ourselves, and our support will rapidly erode, while Iran’s influence, already greatly increased by our own Iraq and Afghanistan misadventures, will blossom. Now Iran, together with its proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas, will dominate the oil-rich Middle East and be in a position to control a major part of the world’s oil supply.

One could, of course, hope that new sanctions will finally work, but there is little evidence either that the current sanctions have made any significant difference, nor that world governments can agree on new sanctions that will have any more teeth than the current ones, nor be observed any better than the current ones.

Suppose our inaction finally drives Israel to strike the Iranian nuclear sites out of desperation – after all, Iran’s publically-stated and oft-repeated policy is to annihilate Israel, and I can hardly see the Jewish state allowing a second holocaust if they can prevent it. One might think we are well out of it, but of course we aren’t. No one in the Middle East will believe we didn’t help the Israelis, so we (including our troops in Iraq and Afghanistan) will suffer retribution along with Israel.

More than that, a strike on Iran will no doubt unleash a blitz of rocket attacks on Israel, followed of necessity by a massive retaliation by Israel, and we will soon have a third full-blown Middle Eastern war on our hands. And of course Iran can bring the world’s oil supply to a halt in hours by simply mining the Strait of Hormuz.

Nor is there any realistic prospect that we can stay out of the conflict once it starts. Could any American president or political party survive if it allowed Israel to be destroyed by its neighbors? Could any administration survive if it refused to help a democratic ally, and a Jewish one at that, prevent a second holocaust? Could any American government allow the nation’s oil supply to be cut off without a military response? I think not.

About the only workable option we have at the moment is to credibly threaten our own military action against Iran if they don’t desist in the nuclear development in ways (meaning intrusive inspections) that assure everyone they have really quite the business. The Iranian leadership isn’t dumb. They want to stay in power. Faced with complete destruction or staying in power with all the wealth and perks it seems to be bringing them, they will probably (though with much bluster) back down.

The key word is “credibly”. If they don’t really believe us, the threat is meaningless. Unfortunately, our political class doesn’t seem to be capable of issuing credible military threats. So their timidity in the face of a really serious threat will probably eventually lead us into just the nightmare military confrontation they are trying to avoid.

This is another case where having the capability to deploy massive military power can actually prevent a war, but only if the opposition thinks our government is really willing to use force if it must.