Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Go for it!

Actually, the more I think about it the more I think the best thing for the nation in the long run would be a failure of the "fiscal cliff" negotiations.  It would allow all taxes to increase (which we need), and it would impose modest cuts on spending, including military spending (which we need).  Of course all sorts of special interests will scream that the sky is falling, that little babies will die, that the nation will go back into recession, that we will lose our dominance in the world, etc etc.  But if one ignores the self-serving predictions of doom, it would actually begin to reduce the deficit a little, which neither party seems willing to do any other way.

If all the terms of the "fiscal cliff" (the the Budget Control Act of 2011) were to go into effect, it would cut next year's federal deficit, as a percentage of GDP, about in half. It would increase federal revenue by a bit over 25%, though it would cut federal spending by only a fraction of 1%. That is a significant improvement, though still not enough to eliminate the annual deficit.

Needless to say this is certainly not the ideal way to reduce our deficit.  A better deal would increase taxes less, and cut far more of the federal spending.  A better balance would be in the range of $2-$3 in cuts for every $1 in revenue increase.  But at least it is A way, and there is no evidence that either Democrats or Republicans are going to do it any other way.