The sudden emergence of a new proposal last night for Syria
to turn over its stock of chemical weapons to international control for
destruction is a deal that just might work, and might get President Obama out
of the uncomfortable box he has gotten himself into. It might work because all the principle players
have the maximum incentive to make it work.
Syria will probably agree in order to avoid having its
military further crippled. For all its bluster in recent days about retaliation
for an America attack, President Assad’s regime is just barely hanging on in
the civil war, and certainly doesn’t want to be weakened further.
Russia will support the proposal because (a) they don’t want
to see Assad fall, (b) it gives them international prestige for having played a
significant role in resolving the issue, and (c) because they don’t want a
precedent set for international intervention that someday might be used against
them.
China will probably go along for much the same reasons.
President Obama and Congress will agree because it gets the
president out of the box he put himself into, and Congressional anti-war Democrats
can avoid a very difficult vote – to vote against their president or vote
against war.
The Arab League will agree because it avoids yet another
incursion by America forces, and because it addresses one of their real
concerns – Assad’s chemical weapons.
The UN will agree because it gets to play a significant role
again in resolving the issue.
And in fact the proposal, if it is really carried out, does
address the only real America national interest in this whole civil war – eliminating
the chance that Assad’s chemical weapons will fall into the hands of terrorists
who might use them elsewhere.
Deals like this work (a) because it is in the self- interest
of all the parties to make it work, and (b) because the consequences of its not
working (an American attack on Syria) are worse than the consequences of making
it work. It is only fair to note that a
proposal like this wouldn’t stand a chance without the threat of America military
action to make it more appealing.
In the oriental game of Go an important tactic is to place
stones in threatening positions, which forces the opponent’s hand and restricts
his/her play options. The lesson is that military power is best and most
efficiently used when it isn’t used, but just threatened. Of course, if the bluff is called, one must be
prepared to follow through, or the threat ceases to be believed. That is where President Obama got himself into
trouble in the first place.
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