Against all odds we seem to have a proposed deal with
Iran to limit their nuclear ambitions. Since any deal would have had to have
the (probably grudging) approval of Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, it
probably means that Iran’s hard liners won’t be able to kill it. And while
Republicans seem to be lining up to oppose the deal, I assume President Obama
can corral enough Democrats to (probably reluctantly) uphold any veto. So no doubt we will end up with this deal.
It certainly isn’t a good deal, because it leaves most
of Iran’s nuclear facilities intact, except for disabling their heavy water reactor
at Arak that could have been used to produce plutonium for weapons. But it may be an adequate deal if (and only
if):
1. the Iranians allow the IAEA inspection system to
work as it should, and
2. the Western powers have the political will to put sanctions
back into effect if Iran violates the terms of the agreement.
I doubt that this agreement will lead to any early
thaw between Iran and the Western powers.
Indeed, Khameni may feel it necessary to let his hard liners have victories
in other areas to sooth their opposition to this deal. And no doubt much of the
flood of new money from unfrozen Iranian assets and new Iranian oil sales will
be used to stir up more trouble elsewhere in the Middle East.
On the other hand, the flood of new Iranian oil on the
market will probably depress the price of oil yet more, and cause Russia’s
President Putin more headaches.
Only time will tell whether this was a naive effort, or a worthwhile diplomatic victory. It's too early yet to judge.
Only time will tell whether this was a naive effort, or a worthwhile diplomatic victory. It's too early yet to judge.
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