The Trump Phenomena

Donald Trump made yet more outrageous proposals this week – this time proposing to ban all Muslims from entering the country – and the result (besides hysterical attacks from the liberals and the media) was that his poll numbers climbed even higher. Something significant is going on here.

I used to think that Trump was just a spoiled clown. Now I am beginning to think he is actually pretty clever.  He uses his outrageous statements (a) to preempt the daily news cycles, keeping all his opponents, Republican and Democrat alike, out of the news, and (b) to tap into a deep unease in the American public, the majority of whom (again, Republican, Democrat and Independent alike) think American domestic and foreign policy is on the wrong track, and that our political system is broken, run by an out-of-touch political elite in Washington who care more about keeping their seats and satisfying their corporate or union backers than about the good of the nation.

This is not a phenomena affecting just the Republicans. Hillary Clinton may well be the Democratic nominee in the end, but the challenge from Sanders shows that the Democrats aren't all that happy with their establishment leaders either. Nor is she particularly well liked, even among Democrats.

There is clearly something unusual going on here.  I wish I could read what political and social historians will say about this epoch fifty years from now, when it is clearer what is going on. Right now it is puzzling and murky.

Nat Silver, the most successful pollster in recent times, predicts that in the end, Republican primary voters will get serious and dump the Donald for a more “reasonable” Republican candidate (“reasonable” is a relative term here, since most of the other Republican contenders are not so reasonable on some issues, like climate change).  He argues that Trump’s high poll numbers are a result of having so many candidates in the field, and being still so far from the point when primary voters really begin paying attention to the candidates.  Thus far, he argues, Trump’s high poll numbers mostly just reflect his success at dominating the daily news cycle. He may be right, but the talking heads have been predicting Trump’s imminent decline for months now, and they are still wrong.

This is not a new rebellion – the election of a cadre of Tea Party candidates to the House is part of this populist rebellion against the Washington elite, and they have caused a good bit of havoc in Congress already. And the continuing success of conservatives in capturing governorships and state legislatures is also part of the rebellion. Clearly there is a significant political shift occurring in the country, but it is more subtle than just a move to the right. It is a rebellion against the political establishment, Republican and Democrat alike.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out.