The lesson of Trump

Polling still suggests Donald Trump will lose the election to Hillary Clinton, barring any new surprises. Nevertheless, a substantial portion of the nation – something around 40% - apparently favors the Donald over Hillary. Whether they really like him or just see him as the lesser of the two evils is an interesting question, but he certainly has an appeal, and politicians in both parties would do well to ponder why that is.

My own interpretation at the moment, after watching his rise over the past few months, is that he offers four things that traditional politicians in both parties do not offer:

1. He says what he is really thinking.  Yes, often that turns out to dumb or offensive to someone. But at least it is real. I think we as a voting public have gotten tired of and cynical about politicians trotting out the same of standard phrases that we all now know they really don’t mean; the politically correct, focus-group tested,  mealy-mouthed statements designed not to really take a clear stand on anything that might lose votes.  The repeated assertions that they are “serving the American people” when we all know perfectly well they are serving themselves and their biggest donors first. More often than not I don’t agree with Trump, but I do find his candor – erratic as it often is – to be refreshing.

2. He is willing to talk about “sacred” topics – topics that need discussion but that the “politically-correct” politicians carefully tiptoe around and avoid.  Immigration is an example. In our current “victim-centered” society illegal immigrants are “victims”, but in fact it is not at all clear why we have any obligation at all to people who sneak across our borders illegally. Now I often don’t agree with what he has to say about these topics, but at least he is willing to say something about them, and he often expresses what a fair proportion of the voters are thinking. which is more than most traditional politicians are willing to do. 

3. He doesn’t look like he has been bought, or even that he can be bought. That may be an illusion, but he doesn’t seem to be in the pockets of Wall Street bankers and hedge fund managers, or the oil companies, or the coal barons, or any big corporations, or any super-PAC that controls his ideology, or any big donors. Nor in fact does he seem to be ideologically committed to the pet causes of either the liberals or the conservatives. Of course that is why the Washington establishment is so profoundly against him – he isn’t one of them, and he doesn’t seem to be prepared to look out for their interests. He will certainly look out for his own interests, of course. But considering how little support he has gotten, even from his own party, he certainly doesn’t seem to be beholden to anyone.

4. He is unabashedly pro-America.  After eight years of President Obama apologizing to the world repeatedly for America, it is kind of refreshing to see someone who seems prepared to stand up for the nation he wants to lead. I can’t think of another nation in the world that isn’t proud of itself and of what it has accomplished – even nations mired in endless civil wars retain a sense of self-worth in their history and cultures. So I suspect many voters are a little tired of the constant East Coast liberal attitude of apologizing for our faults.  Yes, America has faults, but in fact as near as I can tell our democratic systems is working as hard as anyone in the world to grow past them.

Of course none of us – TV talking heads and op-ed pundits included – have any idea how he would actually be as president. As Scott Adams pointed out in a recent blog, no one really knows who would be the best president, because no one knows what challenges she/he will face. A person who would be good at handling a war might be disastrous in handling a recession – and we have no idea ahead of time which of these they might face.

But traditional establishment politicians would do well to ponder Trump’s success.  If he loses, which he probably will, this voter discontent isn’t going to disappear. Thus far it seems to me the establishment has been blaming everyone else, including the “dumb” voters”, for this unsettled election season. But in fact I think most of the voter discontent is with the establishment itself and its policies. Until/unless the establishment can overcome it’s hubris and look honestly at itself, it is going to continue to face these sorts of voter revolutions.

PS - having said that, I seriously doubt that the current political establishment - liberal or conservative - can bring itself to that sort of self-examination.  It has gotten so insular, so isolated from the lives of average Americans, so sure that its views are the right ones and everyone else is either dumb, uninformed, or bigoted, that it would take something fairly drastic to shake up the system.