It seems to me a pattern is emerging in Trump’s cabinet and
senior staff picks – he is picking people who are experienced in dealing with
Russia. The Obama/Clinton years have been filled with constant media and
diplomatic attacks on Russia, casting them back into our old Cold War advisories.
Obama/Clinton tried a “Russia Reset”, but it was doomed from the beginning.
Perhaps we might have guessed that from the “Reset” button
Clinton presented to Russian Foreign Minister Lavror in 2009. It was supposed
to say “Reset” (perezagruzka) in Russian
but the State Department got it wrong and put the word peregruzka (overcharge) on it. It seems to me the State Department
under Clinton continued to get it wrong with Russia from then on.
It is true that Russia is not governed the way we would like
America to be governed. It is not a
democracy, but rather a rather more refined Mafia-like kleptocracy, in which
President Putin and his friends are getting quite rich. On the other hand, that
seems to be the sort of government that the Russian public chooses, perhaps
because they care more about stability under a strong leader than about individual freedom. And given their
history, who could blame them?
It is also true that the Russians are a proud people, with a
rich history, and the collapse of the Soviet Union was a humiliating experience
for them, which we didn’t make any easier by our actions and inaction. Instead
of stepping in and magnanimously offering a helping hand (as we did to Germany with
the Marshall Plan after we defeated them in World War II), we largely ignored
them when we weren’t gloating in the media about having won the Cold War. So I
can understand why the Russian people respond to President Putin’s constant
attempts to make them proud again, to give them some dignity.
As a practical matter, Russia is no threat to us. They are a
regional power, not a global power, and cannot project significant force beyond
their immediate neighborhood. Yes, they
have nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles, but the ruling regime knows
that using them would bring immediate destruction to the regime, so they are a
matter of national pride and national status, not effective military threats.
Their economy is too weak to sustain a major war. They can stir up trouble in their
near neighborhood, but not much else.
And the Russian regime is paranoid for quite understandable
reasons, after invasions in recent times by neighbors France (Napoleon) and
Germany (Hitler). I think we Americans don’t appreciate how the ever-closer
encroachment of NATO to their borders makes them nervous. We may know that NATO
is just a defensive force, but with the Russian’s recent history, I can see why
they don’t see it as such a benign force, and why they would like to have
buffer states between themselves and the West.
One way to turn an enemy into a friend is to stop treating
them as an enemy and start treating them as a friend. I suspect that may be
what is in Trump’s mind. Give the Russian people the dignity and respect they
deserve as a nation with a rich history and tradition, and legitimate security
and economic concerns of their own. Stop
trying to replay the Cold War with them, and stop bitching that they aren’t a
democracy. Certainly there are issues we disagree on – just as we disagree on various
issues with other nations – but there are lots of issues in which we have
common interests and should be working together.
Trump’s efforts here may not succeed, but it seems to me worth
giving it a try. Certainly the path we have been on with Russia up to now under
Obama hasn’t worked. Of course the old
Cold War hawks in America’s political class – liberal and conservative alike –
will be up in arms about this, and the liberal media will continue to “view
with alarm” Trump’s moves (but then they seem to kvetech endlessly about anything he does, so what else is
new?).
I’m encouraged that we seem to have a president-elect who appears
willing to step out of the old Cold War mindset that has dominated the
professional Washington foreign policy community, and that hasn’t been working,
and try something different with Russia.
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