Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Recommended: Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar

There is a wonderful 1993 movie called Rising Sun, starring Sean Connery and Wesley Snipes, involving the investigation of a murder in a newly-opened Japanese corporate office building in New York. In it there is an early scene in which the young detective (Wesley Snipes), guided by the old Japan hand (Sean Connery) suddenly realizes that he is completely out of his depth, and that in the Japanese corporate culture around him there are layers and layers of complexity well beyond his simple American concepts.  I think the mainstream American press and the blogosphere and the TV talking heads are about at about that point right now. Ideologically blinded, they still think of Trump as dumb and naïve despite the now overwhelming evidence that he is in fact a pretty bright guy, a lot brighter apparently than the political establishment and media that were so sure he would never win the primaries, and certainly never win the presidency. And in fact, anyone who really thought clearly about it might suspect that anyone who could become a billionaire with a private 757 jet in the rough, dog-eat-dog high-risk New York commercial real estate market is probably a pretty clever cookie!

Trump’s call with the President of Taiwan set off a predictable cascade of editorials and stories about how this was yet another naïve move by a foreign policy amateur. Now of course it has been coming out that this was instead a carefully planned strategic move, orchestrated in part by ex-Senator Bob Dole over several weeks.  To understand the background and probable significance of this move, read George Friedman’s article Trump, Taiwan and an Uproar.  Friedman, CEO of STRATFOR, the world’s largest private intelligence agency, is a very astute geopolitical student. (I highly recommend reading STRATFOR’s free weekly geopolitical summary articles, and Friedman's books).

Since the mainstream press (and the administration) has been wrong-footed for some years now with ISIS and the Middle East, China, Putin’s Russia, Brexit, and now the primaries and the election, one wonders how much more it will take before they realize they need to re-calibrate their thinking. Or maybe they are so in thrall with their ideology, or so smug in their supposed superiority that they are simply incapable of learning and changing!