Fighting insurgencies

The Israeli incursion into Gaza, with its attendant civilian casualties, points out again that the world as a whole has not yet figured out how to effectively fight an insurgency hiding amidst a civilian population, and even using that civilian population as a deliberate human shield. Israel has had the same problem repeatedly, most recently in Lebanon. And it is essentially the same problem we ourselves face now in Iraq and Afghanistan, and that the French and then we faced in Vietnam forty years ago.

No one in this debacle owns the moral high ground. Israel and Hamas both carry substantial blame, as do all the Arab governments around Israel that have repeatedly stirred up this pot, cynically using the Palestinians as pawns in their power games even as they publically berate Israel for mistreating them. The Palestinians themselves are to blame for voting terrorist organizations like Hamas into power, and shouldn’t be surprised at the consequences. The old colonial powers, led by Britain, are responsible for the inane national borders that promote sectarian violence throughout the region. And the rest of the world, including the U.S., carries substantial blame for largely ignoring the problems in the region except when they boil over into open warfare.

So let’s ignore the rights and wrongs of the situation, which by now are hopelessly muddled. Let’s look at the problem pragmatically. Hamas is a terrorist organization publically committed to the destruction of Israel by any possible means, and feels no compunction to follow “civilized” rules of warfare – they are quite willing to target civilians of all ages with rockets, mortars and suicide bombers. In that respect they really are no different than all nations were during World War II, when both sides (all considered “civilized” nations”) bombed civilians quite deliberately.

Israel is an embattled nation forged in the horror of the Holocaust, surrounded by largely hostile Arab enemies who have twice tried to annihilate them, and under constant attack by fanatical non-state militant groups. One can hardly be surprised that they react as they do – indeed they react as most nations, including ourselves, would. Remember that our own reaction to the 9/11 attack on us, by just a dozen terrorists, was to take down the governments of two entire nations – Afghanistan and Iraq.

It’s pretty clear that the cease fire that so many world leaders are trying to put in place will do nothing to solve the problem. A cease fire now will be hailed by Hamas as a victory (perception is reality, however deluded that perception is) and embolden them to continue attacks on Israel just as soon as Iran and Syria can resupply them with new rockets. An international force to patrol Gaza will only work if it has teeth enough to shut down Hamas rocket and mortar attacks, stop the smuggling of weapons in from Egypt, and prevent suicide bombers from crossing the borders, which means fighting the militants in the streets just as the Israelis are doing now, and despite the public rhetoric no nation really cares enough about the situation to actually risk significant casualties among their own troops.

It is also pretty clear that the major insurgent organizations, like Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, have no interest in negotiating a settlement with Israel. Their leaders hold power so long as they can incite hatred of Israel and exploit that hatred. Their supporters in Iran and Syria and elsewhere will fund them only so long as they remain a puppet army against Israel. Cease to oppose Israel and they lose all their power and support. So they have no incentive whatsoever to negotiate a reasonable accommodation.

On the other hand, it is equally clear that if these sorts of insurgencies are allowed to continue, they will lead to repeated bloodshed, reprisals, and acts of terror, not only against Israel, but against everyone – Arab governments not deemed “pure” enough, Western nations seen as supporters of Israel, or any nation that harbors a disgruntled minority. And eventually one of these terrorist groups will get their hands on a nuclear or biological weapon, with disastrous results for all of us.

The Roman Empire was very effective at handling insurgencies, but the world no longer has the stomach for their techniques (level the cities, kill all the men, sell the women and children into slavery, and salt the earth). But in fact it works. Despite administration claims that the “surge” in Iraq reduced violence, the evidence is that sectarian violence really dropped off after enough neighborhoods had been “ethnically cleansed” by local militias, and had once again become pure Shia or pure Sunni, reducing the ethnic tension. The Balkans quieted down after “ethnic cleansing” had realigned the de-facto boarders between opposing groups. And its worth noting that despite public rhetoric in support of the Palestinians, Hezbollah in Lebanon has not piled on with rockets attacks of its own during this Gaza fight – they were hurt badly enough last time that they are reluctant to take on the Israelis again, at least not yet.

In the case of Israel, there will probably never be peace so long as there is a large and resentful Palestinian population embedded within its natural boarders, ready to be whipped into yet another infitada by Israel’s enemies. Fatah in the West Bank seems to be inching toward a reasonable accommodation with Israel that will perhaps lead to stability there. But if Gaza continues to be controlled by terrorists, I don’t see that Israel has much choice but to try to take them out, whatever the civilian casualties.