Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Netanyahu's speech

No doubt the reaction to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech today to Congress will be subject to the usual partisan spin by both conservatives and liberals. My own reaction to it was that it was a pretty good speech, it called a spade a spade in plain language, and it made the administration's attempts over the past few weeks to discredit the Prime Minister in advance look fairly petty.

The core of the whole issue is whether a deal with Iran will in fact prevent them from developing a nuclear capability. We of course don't know what the proposed deal looks like, but leaks suggest that (a) it would leave Iran with thousands of working centrifuges whose only purpose would be to enrich uranium to weapons grade, (b) it would leave all of their nuclear infrastructure intact, and (c) it would expire in ten years. That doesn't sound like a very effective plan to prevent them from developing nuclear weapons.

My worry, shared apparently by many others, is that President Obama is so determined to get a deal of some sort, any sort, to seal his "legacy" that he will give away the store to get it. His history of negotiations, from his first (failed) attempt to get a "grand bargain" with the Republicans early in his first term to his recent (failed) attempts to modify president Putin's aggression in the Ukraine don't inspire much confidence in his negotiating abilities.

It is significant that a substantial number of Democrats in Congress apparently share this worry, though they are torn between expressing it loudly and supporting their party's president. But it shows that this is not just a Republican/conservative worry - it is a Democrat/liberal worry as well.

One core point that Prime Minister Netanyahu made was that Congress ought to have the power to ratify any agreement made, so that if the president does indeed give away more than he should, there is some check on his attempt. Congress, especially the Republicans, don't trust Iran. And frankly I see no reason to trust Iran - there is nothing in their recent history or current actions to suggest that the theocratic and militant Islamic government that rules Iran has in any way become more moderate, or less antagonistic toward America or Israel, or any less willing to stir up trouble and support terrorists.

If Iran really does not intend to build nuclear weapons, as Iran's Supreme leader Ali Khamenei claims, then they should be willing to give up and destroy all the extensive infrastructure they have built to enrich uranium to weapons grade and produce plutonium. If they aren't willing to give it all up, then one can only assume they expect to use it - to build nuclear weapons. And in fact they have made it abundantly clear that they aren't willing to give it up - so why then does the president trust them?