Recommended: How to ensure that Russia will stick to the Ukrainian cease-fire deal

Fareed Zakaria had a good opinion piece in the Washington Post on February 12, How to ensure that Russia will stick to the Ukrainian cease-fire deal. As the administration and its critics debate whether or not to send lethal arms to aid the Ukraine in its fight against the covert Russian attacks, Fareed makes some interesting points:

1) Militarily, Russia has the upper hand. It is physically much closer, has committed Russian-leaning supporters within the disputed area of the Ukraine, and probably cares more about the outcome. 

2) In the financial and trade world, the Western powers have the upper hand. We can live without Russia's goods and technology and financial support.  Russia can't prosper without our goods and technology and financial support.

3) Why then, Fareed quite logically asks, would we want to leave the battleground (financial and trade world) where the West has the upper hand and move to the battleground (military) where Russia has the upper hand?

His argument makes a lot of sense to me. Tighter sanctions, or the threat of tighter sanctions, including especially the banking sanctions that Russia really fears, look to be far more effective that arming the Ukraine, since if Russia really wants to capture the Donbas with military force (acknowledged or not) there is no question that they can do it whatever the Ukraine does.