Well, the conventions are
finally almost over (thank goodness!).
What more do we know now about the two candidates?
Donald Trump came across
pretty much as he has all through the primaries – a short-tempered ego-driven,
relatively ignorant sociopath with a short attention span, spouting wildly
unpredictable and often contentious programs from day-to-day, but with an amazing
ability to use the press to market himself. Nothing new there.
Hillary Clinton came across
as the quintessential Washington elite insider, a sociopathic serial liar
willing to say or do whatever is necessary to gain power, a relatively
uninspiring speaker selling the same old economically-unworkable progressive
programs that haven’t worked in the past. Nothing new there either.
The fact, revealed in the
leaked emails, that the Democratic National Committee, supposedly neutral in
the primaries, was in fact actually trying to sink Bernie Sanders isn’t
surprising. Both Trump and Sanders threatened the political establishment of
both parties and one would expect the establishment to try to protect its power
and perks by all means at its disposal. The Democratic establishment was just
better at it - and they should have been, since they are in power right now
(good thing for Hillary, or she might have been indicted after all).
Of more concern, perhaps, was
the fact that the Democratic National Committee protected its internal
communications so poorly that hackers, perhaps Russian, were able to read
everything they were writing. In the light of Hillary’s own indiscretions in
this area, I’m not impressed with their competence.
The fact, also revealed in
the leaked email, that some prominent members of the press who pretended they
were doing unbiased reporting turned out to be coordinating their work with the
DNC was also not really surprising. Most
of us no longer trust the press, even the old “Gold Standards” of supposed
objectivity like the New York Times.
News has become heavily politicized, largely toward the liberal side, over the
past decade.
My current prediction,
(prediction, not preference!) is that Trump will win the election. Hillary has been spending a lot more money
(about 15:1 against Trump), and has a much larger organization, yet most of it
seems ineffectual. She has spent something like $57 million in ads to date, yet
is dropping in the polls. Even compared with Trump’s shambolic election
organization she and her campaign team appear to be unusually incompetent. Even
more telling is that, in spite of Trump's unexpected ability to harness the
simmering discontent in the country, Hillary and her team still seem not to
understand what has happened or how the mood of the electorate has shifted.
Against that, Trump has
cleverly bet that there will be more terrorist attacks and chaos over the next
few months (probably a safe bet), and built his campaign accordingly. He is
betting that security issues and economic discontent in Middle America will
outweigh all of Clinton’s wonky progressive policy proposals in the minds of
the majority of voters. It is probably a good tactical move.
No doubt the country will
survive whichever one of these sociopaths gets elected. The odds are the winner
will be a one-term president, and that Congressional and bureaucratic obstruction will keep much of
anything from really changing.
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