Friday, July 29, 2016

Now it's official

Ok. Now it is official. We the America voters have only two practical choices for our next President – Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, as sorry a pair of sociopaths as one could imagine.  Yes, there is a Libertarian Party and a Green Party as well, but a vote for either of these is just a throw-away vote. (On the other hand, my state will go Democratic in the electoral college no matter what, so my presidential vote really doesn’t matter that much.)

That is the choice we are stuck with. And in fact the runner-up alternatives, Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz, weren’t any better, though Bernie was at least likable in a sort of crazy-uncle way, which is more than I can say for any of the others.

On the surface it might seem better to elect Hillary, despite her sleazy past, paranoia, and choice of incompetent loyalists.  She will of course continue President Obama’s push to aggregate yet more power to the Presidency and away from Congress, and as a dedicated progressive she will continue to push for more Federal involvement and control and regulation in all aspects of our lives. And she is a Cold War hawk, which means she will be more likely to get us yet more involved in the Middle East tar baby.  But we do know pretty much what we will get with Hillary – more of the same. She won’t upset her corporate and Wall Street backers with any effective reforms, she won’t rile the cozy Washington insiders club, and she and Bill will no doubt continue to enrich themselves and their close friends by selling access and influence, just as they have been doing up to now. 

On the other hand, she won’t upset our allies, she won’t impose any crazy protectionist tariffs or start unnecessary trade wars, she is unlikely to provoke by mistake or an intemperate remark conflicts with Russia or China, and she will probably keep our military adequately funded. And except for some rich-person-entitlement gaffs, she is unlikely to embarrass the nation too much.

Donald Trump is unpredictable, ego-driven, and thin-skinned, and Hillary’s jab that one can’t trust a man who can be baited with just a tweet is right on target. On the other hand, he is upsetting the incestuous Washington establishment, and it badly needs upsetting.  Republican politicians have gotten wildly off-message with their obsession with the conservative culture wars over the past couple of decades, and have forgotten that they were supposed to be the party of fiscal responsibility, less-intrusive government and individual freedom.  Oh, they still spout those values in campaign speeches, but when actually in power they are not loathe to use the government to try to impose their own religious views on everyone else, nor to increase federal spending without increasing taxes to support it.

So the gamble is: would a Trump presidency really shake things up enough to change the Washington culture for the better? On the other hand, would a Trump loss, and to such an unpopular opponent at that, force a major revolution and re-examination in the Republican party?

As an independent, I want there to be two healthy, competitive parties.  I think the nation profits from that. We don’t have that now.  The liberals are still pitching decades-old wealth-redistribution ideas that clearly don’t work and don’t address today’s economy.  The conservatives are off in never-never land with their culture wars. Both parties are badly out of touch not only with the real world situation, but with their own voter bases, which is why this has been an unusual primary season.

It is a true dilemma.  Go with the establishment, rotten as it is, or try someone unpredictable, without any guarantee that he will make things better, and might well make them worse.