Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Back to the nation’s dilemma

A few days ago I noted in a posting that America faced a dilemma – how to build and maintain a military adequate to protect our national interests and the interests of our allies around the world without bankrupting the nation. I suggested among other things that perhaps we needed to rethink our military force structure.

In that regard, consider the US navy’s love of nuclear submarines. We currently operate 66 submarines, all nuclear powered. This force is comprised of 18 Ohio class ballistic missile submarines, 3 Seawolf class attack submarines (we stopped building more when the Cold War ended), 34 older Los Angeles class attack submarines (which we are retiring; we have already retired another 26 of them), and 11 new Virginia class attack submarines (with 5 more under construction, to replace the older Los Angeles class as they are decommissioned). And the navy is already designing the Columbia class submarines as the replacement for the Ohio class ballistic missile submarines as are they are retired.

As I have noted in previous posts, it takes 3-4 ships in the inventory for each ship kept on station somewhere around the world. The other ships are in transit to or from station, in training or in maintenance. Submarines take a lot of maintenance, and sub crews require constant training and practice because a modern sub is exceedingly complex. So it takes all this inventory to keep about 6 missile subs and about 20 attack subs on station at all times.

Now US nuclear submarines are impressive. With their nuclear reactor power they can cruise around the world at high speed (for a submarine) and stay underwater for years at a time. In fact it is the stamina and the food supply for the crew that limits their deployment time. But they are wickedly expensive to build, crew and maintain. The Block III Virginia class submarines we are currently building cost about $2.7 billion each to build and about $21 million a year to run throughout their 30 year lifespan. And they are exceedingly quiet and hard to detect, which is the name of the game in submarine warfare.

BUT in 2005 a small Swedish Gotland class diesel-electric submarine with an air-independent propulsion system participated in war games with the US and repeatedly “sank” (virtually) the new $6.2 billion aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan and a number of the supporting US attack submarines and destroyers without ever being detected by the armada of anti-submarines forces around the carrier. The US navy actually “rented“ this Swedish boat and crew for two years after that to use in war games to try to figure out how to defeat it, and though the navy obviously won’t talk about the results, word is that they never solved the problem. The problem is that even our quietest nuclear subs require pumps running constantly to cool the reactor, and those pumps produce some detectable noise. The Gotland class subs don’t require such pumps and are even quieter. In fact, most modern diesel-electric subs, even those without air-independent propulsion,  are exceedingly hard to detect.

AND the real kicker is that the Gotland class submarines cost Sweden about $100 million each to build, so we could buy/build about 27 of them for the price of one Virginia class US sub. Yes, it wouldn’t go as fast or as deep as a US nuclear sub, nor can it stay underwater nor be deployed as long. But fitted with vertical launch tubes, intercontinental missiles and/or sub-launched anti-ship cruise missiles each one would be almost as deadly, and there could be SO MANY of them.  

Fortunately Sweden is a NATO ally, so we don’t need to worry too much about their subs, but unfortunately China and Russia are also building subs like this, the Song class for China and the  Lada class for Russia, and many other nations around the world are following.  But not the US navy – we are apparently wedded to nuclear subs exclusively despite their enormous costs. That is the sort of institutional inertia – not only in the navy but in all the armed forces and in Pentagon thinking – that we need to overcome if we are to find an affordable way to maintain an adequate military.