Sunday, June 30, 2019

Early thoughts on the election

There is an old Jewish saying, “Don’t pray for a new king. He might be worse than the old one.” I think of that as I watch this election season. Donald Trump has certainly done some things I approve of, such as trying to do something about China’s egregious violations of fair trade rules, trying to engage North Korea in some constructive dialogue, and trying to do something about the growing problem at the border. One can’t overlook the fact that the economy has thrived, wages are up, and unemployment is at a historic low (though Trump’s critics will give him no credit for any of it). And I am happy he has reversed the naïve neoliberal policy of trying to spread American-style democracy, sometimes at the point of a gun, to nations who have no interest in it. Whether his attempts will work only time will tell, but he is at least trying to do something about these issues, which is more than previous administration have done.  Nonetheless, I am certainly less than happy with his personal behavior, and would love to see a more stable and predictable President take his place.

But looking at the performance of the 20+ Democratic candidates on display in the recent debates, I think I may prefer the king we have, despite all his many obvious faults, to the wildly unrealistic and potentially destructive policies that this “woke” bunch seems to subscribe to.

Medicare for all? And just who will pay the estimated $32 TRILLION (Urban Institute estimate) to $36 TRILLION (The Center for Health and Economy estimate) cost over the next 10 years?  That is approximately the same amount as the entire federal budget over those ten years. This is a meaningless proposal which would never get through Congress, and if it did would decimate the economy.

Open borders? Anyone  anywhere who doesn’t like where they are can claim asylum and move to the US? Get real. As soon as that policy is in place we would be swamped even worse than we are now.  Remember the 2014 deluge of unaccompanied children that appeared at the border when Obama loosened the restrictions? We certainly need immigrants, but not unlimited numbers of them. This is another policy which would never get through Congress, and is therefore just meaningless “virtue signaling” to the costal elites who think this is a great idea as long as all those immigrant don’t move into their gated community or take their jobs.

Free college for all? Naïve! Kalamazoo Michigan has tried this for the last decade and discovered that it makes very little difference in the long run. The main obstacle to a college education is not cost, but inadequate preparation before kids reach college, lack of interest or ability in academic study, and overwhelming personal demands (think three jobs or single mother).

Forgive all student loans? There was $1.3 TRILLION in student debt in 2016. Just where is the money coming from to forgive those loans - $1.3 trillion is almost three times more than the federal government already borrows each year.  Or perhaps these candidates propose to just stiff the banks who made the loans, and therefore all of us who have money in the banks.  Another idea that is meaningless because it would never fly.  

I could go on, but you see the idea. Either these candidates are clueless about the real world and incapable of doing simple arithmetic, or they know perfectly well that these are just meaningless promises but figure they can con the rubes (us voters) long enough to get elected, after which they can quietly drop these dumb ideas. Either way – ignorant or con job - I don’t want such people running the country.  Trump at least was honest in his campaign about what he wanted to do, whether we liked his ideas or not, and has in fact tried to follow through on all his promises, which is unusual in politics and rather refreshing.

My assessment is, as it has been for the past couple of years, that this drift of the Democratic party to the far left is not healthy for the party.  It certainly won’t attract independents like me, despite my distaste for Trump, and I suspect Democratic voters as a whole will not be happy with it, and while they may not vote for Trump many may well just stay home on election day.