It is clear from some of the media comments that many people
don’t understand the logic of quarantines and lockdowns of the sort that Italy
has just imposed. The media complaints have been that quarantines and lockdowns
are useless, that they aren’t working because the coronavirus is still
spreading, so we might as well not bother with them.
Epidemics tend to follow a bell-shaped curve, a sharp rise
in infections at first as it spreads through a largely susceptible population,
reaching a peak and then beginning to decline as the pool of susceptible people
decreases. That peak is what causes the biggest problem, because lots of serious
cases at once overwhelm the available medical facilities, as indeed is
happening right now in Italy. There aren’t enough beds or enough respirators to
deal with the number of serious respiratory problems they are seeing.
The point of quarantines and lockdowns is to flatten that
peak and spread out the infections over a longer time, so that the health
facilities can better cope with the volume. There indeed may be just as many infections
in the end, but spreading them out over a longer time makes them more manageable.
Not so many beds and respirators are needed at the same time. There is time to
resupply medications, and even to buy time for the development of vaccines.
If the U.S. were smart, it would begin such measures now,
even before it is apparent that they are needed, because if one waits until it
is obvious that we have a serious problem, it is already too late for quarantines
or lockdowns to have their desired effect of flattening the peak. Of course, we won’t do that. Even with Italy
as an example. Some companies and colleges are beginning to understand and move
classes and work online, but the U.S. political system – in both parties – is still
clueless.
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