I would argue that the upcoming 2016 presidential election
is critical not only for our nation, but for the world as a whole. We have had two two-term presidents in a row
who have badly fumbled the ball – President Bush with his foreign policy
overreach (principally the long, expensive, bloody and ultimately futile Iraq
adventure), and now President Obama with his feckless “lead-from-behind” inactivity. The result has
been a serious decline in America’s influence in critical places in the world. From a historical perspective, it has been American
influence and power that has kept the relative peace in the world since the end
of World War II, despite the endless carping from the left. If that power wanes significantly, I would
expect the world to become a much less pleasant place in the future.
The world faces some serious problems now: Africa and the
Middle East are both aflame with lawless jihadist groups, armed sectarian militias,
and plain criminal gangs. Thousands of people are being murdered every week in
Nigeria, in Iraq, in Syria, in Afghanistan, and in Pakistan to name just a few
of the trouble spots (murdered largely, by the way, by Muslims, not by Jews,
though the UN and the world press are conveniently ignoring this these days). Hamas
is clearly a threat, not only to Israel, but also to other Arab regimes in the
area, including especially Egypt, which is why many of the Arab governments
have tacitly and quietly backed Israel in this attempt to destroy Hamas. The brutal
fanatics in Iraq and Syria now calling themselves “The Islamic State” have plans to expand (violently) everywhere.
In the Ukraine I think it highly likely that President Putin
has backed himself into a corner where he will be forced by the very hawkish domestic
forces he himself has been whipping up to invade to save his so-called “rebels”.
That will pose a very, very serious
dilemma for America, NATO and Western Europe.
If we let him get away with it, why should he stop there (shades of
Hitler and World War II)? If we oppose
him with military force, we are in a war with Russia. It will take a better
president than we have had recently to find a relatively safe way through this
thicket.
So while domestic politics – the immigration crisis, Obamacare
and the like - may dominate the mid-term elections, America’s national security
issues may well be the core issue for the 2016 presidential election. I would be a lot happier if I saw any
potential presidential candidates in either party who looked up to managing
these crises wisely.
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