Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Talk about spinning the news…

Kansas just held a special election for the 4th Congressional district to elect a replacement for Republican Congressman Mike Pompeo, whom Trump appointed to head the CIA.  The Democrats mounted a fierce campaign to try to win the seat as a demonstration of how unpopular the Trump administration was. They failed; Republican Ron Estes won by 7 points. Any rational observer would see the Democrats failed. 

But not the New York Times, who promptly printed an article entitled A Republican Wins in Kansas. It’s Still a Loss for the G.O.P.

Their logic? Trump won the district by 27 points; Estes won it by only 7 points. So that shows how poorly the Trump administration in particular, and the GOP in general, is doing.  It is amazing to what extremes the liberal media will go to try to support the narrative they seem to have to believe in. Well, if I were a Republican I would be delighted. An opponent who can’t see reality is an opponent who is far easier to defeat.  And right now Democrats can’t seem to see reality.

Monday, April 10, 2017

Two pernicious cultural movements in America

Understanding history and current affairs is a signal-to-noise problem. There are always fundamental shifts taking place in the culture that will shape the future, but they are usually largely masked by a great deal of day-to-day noise, ephemeral fads, political battles, hyped news, and the like. I spend a great deal of time trying my best to discern the fundamental shifts through the fog of the daily noise of life.  And by the way, this whole election and its aftermath - important and emotional as it seems to many people right now – is really just noise in the long term, as were similar upsets, now largely forgotten, when Reagan was elected, when Roosevelt was elected, etc, etc.

The fundamental shifts that seem to me to be important for the future direction of American culture include the encroachment of automation and the resulting changes in the labor market, the effects of worldwide interconnectedness (the internet, cell phones, etc), the demographic changes producing an older population, and the rise of China as an economic powerhouse, just as examples.

Of all of these, there are two movements in American culture which I think are pernicious and a threat in the long run to national survival:

The first is the emergence of a victim-centered culture, or as one writer named it, the grievance culture. The essence of this culture is the assumption that whatever is wrong with one’s life is someone else’s fault, and that they therefore owe recompense for it. We see it everywhere. Lawyers put up billboards advertising their services for litigation to those involved in auto accidents (in my youth such lawyers were called “ambulance chasers”, and it was a derogatory term). African-American leaders demand payment to themselves for indignities visited upon slave ancestors many generations back. Doctors go out of business because their liability insurance rates are unsupportable – patients sue them because medical procedures, always chancy by their very nature, didn’t turn out the way they expected.

Certainly there are real grievances in the world. Prejudice based on gender, on race, on sexual preference, on religion, on politics, etc is alive and well. Corporations and bureaucracies on occasion do terrible injustices. There are careless and incompetent doctors in the world. All of these are valid reasons to try to change the culture. But they are not valid reasons to assume that any misfortune in life is someone else’s fault.  Life is uncertain, unfair, and probabilistic in nature. We all – even the wealthy of us – are born with disadvantages. We all – even the privileged among us – have bad things happen to us.  The measure of our character is how well we handle the misadventures of life – how much responsibility we take for our own condition.  Women do rise to be CEOs of major corporations, despite the glass ceiling. Blacks do rise to be president, despite the prejudice. Poor people do rise to become wealthy, despite the economic disadvantage.

The essence of American culture through most of our nation’s history has been the Horatio Alger story – poor boy works hard and succeeds.  The essence of American culture though most of our history has been embodied in the hearty settler family, fending for themselves in a wilderness, facing off hostile Indians, uncertain weather, and wild bears. Yes, these were in many ways myths, but they expressed the expectations of the culture – that people were responsible for their own condition.  We are losing that, to be replaced with the expectation of a sort of childlike dependence on others, on the system, on government, to make up for whatever ills happen to befall us in life. That attitude will, I think, seriously harm our culture and our nation in the long run

The second pernicious cultural movement is the rise of identity politics, of attempts, for political advantage, to divide Americans into distinct “tribes” – women, blacks, Hispanics, Asians, etc., and set them against each other in zero-sum political games. America is a nation of immigrants, and the great success of America has been to accept a wide variety of peoples from around the world  and weld them within a generation or two into a common culture and a common nation – something Europeans have not done so well and far East nations haven’t even tried yet. As Theodor Roosevelt said in a speech 1915:
There is no room in this country for hyphenated Americanism. When I refer to hyphenated Americans, I do not refer to naturalized Americans. Some of the very best Americans I have ever known were naturalized Americans, Americans born abroad. But a hyphenated American is not an American at all … The one absolutely certain way of bringing this nation to ruin, of preventing all possibility of its continuing to be a nation at all, would be to permit it to become a tangle of squabbling nationalities, an intricate knot of German-Americans, Irish-Americans, English-Americans, French-Americans, Scandinavian-Americans or Italian-Americans, each preserving its separate nationality, each at heart feeling more sympathy with Europeans of that nationality, than with the other citizens of the American Republic … There is no such thing as a hyphenated American who is a good American. The only man who is a good American is the man who is an American and nothing else.
More recently, Whoopi Goldberg expressed the same sentiment last year in an interview:
I can’t keep up with it. I went from being colored to being a negro to being black to African-American. I figured I would land on American……You know what uh-uh! This is my country. My mother, my grandmother, my great-grand folks, we busted ass to be here. I’m an American. I’m not an African-American. I’m not a chick-American. I’m an American!...... Any time you hyphenate American, any time you put something in front of it, it’s like you’re not a real American. Well, I’m a whole lot of all-American. This is my country and I’m an American.
The attempt to divide people with identity politics – a staple for example of Hillary Clinton’s failed presidential campaign – is an existential threat to the nation. One only has to look at European countries that have within them ghettos of disaffected immigrants who don’t feel part of the nation they live in to see the problems it causes.

Sunday, April 9, 2017

The Obama legacy

Obama supporters would like to think that President Obama left a legacy to be proud of, and certainly a better legacy than they anticipate will follow President Trump. How realistic is that?  Let’s look at President Obama’s tenure:

He was proudest of ObamaCare, a bill that was driven through Congress hurriedly with hardball politics without a single Republican vote.  Critics predicted that it was fiscally unsupportable. Where is it now?

·         We were promised that under ObamaCare we could keep our current plans and our current doctors if we wanted to. That clearly didn’t happen, and subsequently Obama admitted to the press that he knew it wouldn’t happen.

·         Of 23 non-profit State Insurance Cooperatives initially funded by taxpayer money under ObamaCare, only 7 remain, at a loss to date of $1.7 billion in taxpayer money. And several of the 7 remaining are expected to fail this year.

·         We were promised that insurance rates would fall under ObamaCare. That certainly didn’t happen. The average increase across the nation this year is estimated at 22%. Over the eight Obama years studies show that insurance premiums rose on average about 50% across the nation.

·         Major insurance companies (Humana, Aetna, United Healthcare) have withdrawn from all or most of ObamaCare because they are losing money – too many sick people vs healthy people signed up -  just as critics predicted.

·         Obama promised that ObamaCare would insure 32 million people who didn’t have health care insurance. The actual number in 2017 turns out to be a little more than 10 million, almost 90% of them subsidized by taxpayer funds. As I have mentioned before, he could have simply subsidized them in the first place and not disrupted everyone else’s plans.

Hardly a legacy to be proud of.

When Obama took office, the national debt stood at $10.6 trillion. When he left office it stood at $19.9 trillion, so it almost doubled under Obama’s administration. The US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2016 is estimated at $18.6 trillion, so in essence the national debt now stands at more than the entire nation’s output in a year.  When third world nations have this sort of balance they are considered to be in deep, deep financial trouble.

Hardly a legacy to be proud of.

Obama drew his red line in Syria at the use of chemical weapons against civilians. When Assad crossed that red line he did nothing. Then he acceded to a Russian plan to have all of Assad’s chemical weapons removed from the country, and assured the world it had been done.  Then last week Assad’s forces used Sarin gas against a rebel village -  so much for Obama’s promise that all the chemical weapons had been removed.  He was clearly suckered by Putin and Assad, or at least by Assad.

Hardly a legacy to be proud of.

He negotiated the Paris Agreement to attack climate change. It certainly got a lot of press and spin, and the greens loved it. But in fact the agreement has no teeth – no enforcement mechanism and no penalties for not meeting its goals, just like previous agreements in this area.  So in fact it is really nothing but a set of promises by politicians, and we all know what they are worth.

In fact both the US and China have more than met their goals thus far, but not because of any agreement; simply because economics drove improvement.  The Chinese needed to deal with the terrible level of coal-derived smog in their cities.  In the US fracking technology made natural gas cheaper than coal, and so drove a movement of power stations away from coal, which produces more greenhouse gas.

Not much of a legacy here, despite the spin

North Korea now has working nuclear weapons, and working short and intermediate-range missiles, and is working hard on long-range ballistic missiles. Most of these advances came during the Obama administration, and Obama appears to have done nothing to try to slow the progress. If he did things behind the scenes they certainly didn’t work. He certainly didn’t seem to get China to do anything to help restrain North Korea, and it is not clear that he even tried.

Hardly a legacy to be proud of.

So I’m at a loss to see much of an Obama legacy to be proud of here.  He did on occasion avoid doing stupid things, especially in the Middle East – I guess that counts for something. On the other hand American influence and soft power around the world fell noticeably, and he was outmaneuvered by Russian President Putin a number of times.

To be fair, lots of events are simply beyond the President’s control.  So I don’t necessarily blame him for many of the things he didn’t manage to fix.  But on the other hand a legacy is built on doing things that make a difference to the nation in the long run, and I don’t see much of that in the Obama legacy. Diehard liberals may see things differently (they may need to in order to avoid cognitive dissonance), but as an independent I'm not that impressed.

Saturday, April 8, 2017

The point that is being missed about the Syrian gas attack.

The New York Times and CNN and the rest of the liberal press, as usual, are either too enthralled in their own anti-Trump pro-Obama narrative to see the obvious questions, or simply unwilling to explore issues that might embarrass them or impugn the Obama legacy.

President Assad of Syria clearly had and probably still has nerve gas. Several independent international agencies have confirmed that it was Sarin nerve gas that was dropped on a rebel village by a Syrian government plane flying from the airbase that President Trump just attacked.

Here are the questions that the news OUGHT to be asking:

President Obama assured the world that all of Assad’s biological weapons and nerve gas stocks were destroyed and/or removed from the country, under the agreement brokered by Russian President Putin. Was Obama just suckered by Assad and Putin (which is bad enough), or did he in fact know that his statement wasn’t true (even worse)?  There are some stories that the intelligence community knew or at least suspected that Assad still had stocks of these weapons. Are they true, and if so, did Obama know, and if not, why didn’t he know?

Did President Putin know Assad still had these stocks?  If so, he really suckered Obama.  If not, he was played by Assad.  He comes out looking bad either way.

The loudest spokesperson for how sure the administration was that the stocks had been eliminated was Susan Rice. Did she lie? Or did she – the president’s National Security Advisor – not know what the intelligence community knew?  The latter seems unlikely, so if she lied to the public about this, how much trust can we put in her current statement that she didn’t leak any of the names of Trump campaign people that she unmasked in the intelligence reports she admits to have read?

These are the sorts of question a news organization with some integrity would be asking. What can we conclude from the fact that the major news organizations are not asking these questions?

Friday, April 7, 2017

So here’s the Democrat’s problem

We are coming up on the end of the first 100 days of the Trump administration, and the Democrats have a real problem. Far from imploding (though CNN has tried its best to make it look like that), Trump has actually moved ahead smartly to fulfill the very campaign promises that got him elected.  He has eliminated many of the Obama executive orders that conservatives and businesses didn’t like, he has toughened our immigration policy (with the result that there has been a drastic drop in illegal immigrants across our southern border since January), and he will today get his first Supreme Court nominee approved. And the stock market and the economy have both improved markedly. It is true that his first attempt at repealing ObamaCare failed, but that may just be a tactical setback. Already the Tea Party Freedom Caucus, seeing that they can’t get it all their own way, has softened its opposition. And if he does nothing, ObamaCare is in a fiscal death spiral anyway, despite the valiant attempts by its supporters to claim otherwise.

And last night he showed, with the missile attack on the Syrian airbase in response to the Syrian nerve gas attack on a rebel village a few days ago, that unlike Obama, he is willing to back up his red lines. That will strengthen his support among voters, as well as strengthening his hand in dealing with people like the North Koreans or the Chinese.

Liberals have spent this time getting outraged and hyperventilating over one thing after another, and pursuing one conspiracy theory after another, mostly to do with Russian interference in the election (apparently Obama administration interference, or DNC interference,  or media interference doesn’t bother them). They have been almost childish in their response. What they have not done is get organized to try to win back some seats in local or state or national legislatures, which is the necessary first step to getting back into power. In fact what was most noticeable about the Democrat’s futile effort to filibuster Neal Gorsuch’s nomination was that they were rudderless and leaderless, responding almost mindlessly to their most extreme hyper liberal base. I see no sign of any strong leadership emerging yet, nor any sign yet of serious strategic thinking and planning.

Liberals clearly hoped that Trump would simply fail spectacularly in office and their liberal candidates could walk in next election and pick up the pieces. That isn’t going to happen. They are going to have to work, and work hard, to get back in power. They are going to have to talk with - not talk at - people they don’t agree with in order to win them back over.  They are going to have to rethink some of their more left-wing positions and reshape them enough to be acceptable to more people. They are going to have to stop being emotionally outraged (as good as it makes them feel)  and start thinking tactically. And they are going to have to wean themselves off their fascination with the wealthy Hollywood and Wall Street set and get back on friendly terms with their historical base – the working class. And it’s not clear to me that they are willing, or perhaps even capable, of doing that.

This worries me, because I actually support many – perhaps even most – liberal causes. Not the far-left socialist ideas, which appealing as they sound are simply unworkable and unrealistic. But certainly the more centrists goals – eliminate gender and racial discrimination, equal opportunity (opportunity, not outcome) for all, protection of the environment, job security, etc, etc. But the way things are going so far it will be a long time, if ever, before Democrats regain enough political power to defend these causes effectively.

I hope I am wrong.  Bill Clinton managed to revitalize the Democrats last time they were in the wilderness, and perhaps someone like him (and Hillary certainly isn’t the one!) will eventually emerge to get the Democrats off their childish whining jag and back to serious politics. I hope so.

Thursday, April 6, 2017

The road to hell…

Remember the old adage that ”the road to hell is paved with good intentions”? American democracy is in terrible shape right now, riven by unremitting partisanship, and it is mostly due to things people naively thought were good ideas.

Item: In the “good old days” members of Congress lived pretty much full time in Washington, because travelling back to their home districts was expensive and time consuming for all but the few from nearby East Coast towns and cities. So they lived most of the time in Washington, often were neighbors, attended the same Washington parties, and socialized together and became friends, whatever their political party. In the 1940s and 1950s, after a vigorous debate in the Senate, many members of both parties would gather in Senate majority leader Sam Rayburn’s office to drink Bourbon together. (When my grandfather, a Republican in politics, died most of the local Democratic Party turned out for his funeral – they were all good friends of his).

With the advent of fast and cheap air travel, many – perhaps most – members of Congress no longer live and socialize in Washington. They now travel back to their home districts on Thursday, returning on Monday. That means they are more available to their constituents on the weekends, which many thought would be a good thing.  But it also means they now socialize less, if at all, with other members of Congress, and in particular, with those of the opposite party. So there are no longer those bonds of friendship to foster respect and bipartisan comity.  

Item: In the “good old days” members of Congress would retire behind closed doors (those “smoke-filled rooms” that political activists decried as so evil) and negotiate compromises to their differences. Then along came the movement for “open democracy” – let’s get those sneaky deals out of the smoke-filled rooms and into the public light. Sounds like a reasonable idea, doesn’t it?

But what is the result? Members of Congress now have to negotiate in public, and any sign of compromise on either side promptly brings a flood of emails (orchestrated by whatever pressure groups opposes it) from constituents. Result? Compromise is out the window and we get today’s partisan stalemates.  The essence of politics IS compromise – is finding a middle ground that gives all sides something. So cutting off compromise cuts off effective politics, which is where we are now.

Item: In the “good old days” candidates for office were usually selected by local party leaders, who usually, among other things, looked for suitable “electable” candidates. It was a system that was certainly open to abuses, but by and large it worked.  Then along came the movement for direct democracy and open primaries, which certainly on the face of it sounds like a good idea. But in fact far fewer people vote in primaries than vote in general elections, and those that do tend to be those that care most – the most partisan, the most extreme.  The result: we now get far more extreme right or extreme left candidates than we used to, feeding the increasing partisan divide in politics.

More than that, the extremes on both sides can now impose single-issue “purity tests” on primary candidates.  That got us the unruly Tea Party on the right, and fear of primary defeats seems to be driving many of the Democrats in Congress to equally extreme positions, like this really dumb filibuster threat against Trump’s Supreme Court nominee.

Item: In “the good old days” most Congressional districts contained a mix of voters – different parties, different races, different economic classes, etc, etc. That meant candidates had to have broad appeal, and pay attention to the concern of all the groups.  Then politicians began to gerrymander districts to “increase minority participation”.  The theory was that if one gerrymandered a district with, say, a majority of Hispanics or blacks, that would increase the chances a Hispanic or black would get elected and therefore increase Hispanic or black leverage in the political process. Of course gerrymandering wasn’t new; it had been around since the early 1800s. But this argument gave it a liberal moral justification.

The result? Both parties have now gerrymandered so many Congressional districts that most House seats are a safe seat for one party or the other, and the office holders don’t have to pay much attention to any but the dominate political voices in their district. As of this year, about 205 Republican and 173 Democratic seats in the House are considered “safe”.  And of course the economic and political segregation of the nation – with liberals in the costal big cities and conservatives in rural and small towns in mid-America, has exacerbated the problem. All this also feeds the growing partisan divider in the nation.

All four of these changes were made for the most part with the best of intentions (though politicians certainly saw other advantages to gerrymandering). Yet all four have contributed significantly to bringing us to today’s dismal political state. “The road to hell…..”

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Talk about hypocracy....

As I mentioned before, I'm not particularly happy with the Trump administration, but I must say that the Democrats – politicians and media alike – have reached a new high in hypocrisy this week.

Exhibit A: Democratic outrage at the possibility (now almost certainty) that the Republicans will invoke  the “nuclear option” and change the Senate rules to eliminate the filibuster of Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch, even though it was the Democrats themselves, under Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid who on Nov 21, 2013 used the very same nuclear option against the Republicans, and it was Democratic Vice Presidential candidate Tim Kaine who  boasted on TV on Oct 28, 2016 that the Democrats would use it when Hillary was elected to get their candidate approved.

Exhibit B: The liberal media’s public outrage at Trump’s claim that the Obama administration used the intelligence agencies as political weapons against his campaign, followed in the past few days by the sudden media silence and downplaying of the whole issue now that it has been revealed that Susan Rice, President Obama’s National Security advisor, asked for access to the names of Trump’s campaign team (normally, pursuant to US law, US citizens names are masked or "blacked out" in any reports circulated)  that showed up in intelligence reports, and then made that information available to the press in leaks..

I certainly understand that the liberals are upset that they lost the election (though it was their own fault for backing such a flawed candidate), and politics has always been a dirty business, but I must say that this unremitting liberal Democratic attack on the Trump administration, including even the suborning of the intelligence community, is more vicious and dirtier than even the obstructionism of the Republicans against Obama’s policies, and that was pretty bad.