Sunday, April 9, 2017

The Obama legacy

Obama supporters would like to think that President Obama left a legacy to be proud of, and certainly a better legacy than they anticipate will follow President Trump. How realistic is that?  Let’s look at President Obama’s tenure:

He was proudest of ObamaCare, a bill that was driven through Congress hurriedly with hardball politics without a single Republican vote.  Critics predicted that it was fiscally unsupportable. Where is it now?

·         We were promised that under ObamaCare we could keep our current plans and our current doctors if we wanted to. That clearly didn’t happen, and subsequently Obama admitted to the press that he knew it wouldn’t happen.

·         Of 23 non-profit State Insurance Cooperatives initially funded by taxpayer money under ObamaCare, only 7 remain, at a loss to date of $1.7 billion in taxpayer money. And several of the 7 remaining are expected to fail this year.

·         We were promised that insurance rates would fall under ObamaCare. That certainly didn’t happen. The average increase across the nation this year is estimated at 22%. Over the eight Obama years studies show that insurance premiums rose on average about 50% across the nation.

·         Major insurance companies (Humana, Aetna, United Healthcare) have withdrawn from all or most of ObamaCare because they are losing money – too many sick people vs healthy people signed up -  just as critics predicted.

·         Obama promised that ObamaCare would insure 32 million people who didn’t have health care insurance. The actual number in 2017 turns out to be a little more than 10 million, almost 90% of them subsidized by taxpayer funds. As I have mentioned before, he could have simply subsidized them in the first place and not disrupted everyone else’s plans.

Hardly a legacy to be proud of.

When Obama took office, the national debt stood at $10.6 trillion. When he left office it stood at $19.9 trillion, so it almost doubled under Obama’s administration. The US GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2016 is estimated at $18.6 trillion, so in essence the national debt now stands at more than the entire nation’s output in a year.  When third world nations have this sort of balance they are considered to be in deep, deep financial trouble.

Hardly a legacy to be proud of.

Obama drew his red line in Syria at the use of chemical weapons against civilians. When Assad crossed that red line he did nothing. Then he acceded to a Russian plan to have all of Assad’s chemical weapons removed from the country, and assured the world it had been done.  Then last week Assad’s forces used Sarin gas against a rebel village -  so much for Obama’s promise that all the chemical weapons had been removed.  He was clearly suckered by Putin and Assad, or at least by Assad.

Hardly a legacy to be proud of.

He negotiated the Paris Agreement to attack climate change. It certainly got a lot of press and spin, and the greens loved it. But in fact the agreement has no teeth – no enforcement mechanism and no penalties for not meeting its goals, just like previous agreements in this area.  So in fact it is really nothing but a set of promises by politicians, and we all know what they are worth.

In fact both the US and China have more than met their goals thus far, but not because of any agreement; simply because economics drove improvement.  The Chinese needed to deal with the terrible level of coal-derived smog in their cities.  In the US fracking technology made natural gas cheaper than coal, and so drove a movement of power stations away from coal, which produces more greenhouse gas.

Not much of a legacy here, despite the spin

North Korea now has working nuclear weapons, and working short and intermediate-range missiles, and is working hard on long-range ballistic missiles. Most of these advances came during the Obama administration, and Obama appears to have done nothing to try to slow the progress. If he did things behind the scenes they certainly didn’t work. He certainly didn’t seem to get China to do anything to help restrain North Korea, and it is not clear that he even tried.

Hardly a legacy to be proud of.

So I’m at a loss to see much of an Obama legacy to be proud of here.  He did on occasion avoid doing stupid things, especially in the Middle East – I guess that counts for something. On the other hand American influence and soft power around the world fell noticeably, and he was outmaneuvered by Russian President Putin a number of times.

To be fair, lots of events are simply beyond the President’s control.  So I don’t necessarily blame him for many of the things he didn’t manage to fix.  But on the other hand a legacy is built on doing things that make a difference to the nation in the long run, and I don’t see much of that in the Obama legacy. Diehard liberals may see things differently (they may need to in order to avoid cognitive dissonance), but as an independent I'm not that impressed.