About politicians as “sales people”

Thinking more about the Scott Adams piece I just recommended, it occurs to me that Donald Trump really isn’t all that different from all the other politicians – he is just better at it. Lots of us voted for Obama the first time because he sold us his “hope and change” vision.  But of course we didn’t get either hope or change in the end.  Hillary is selling different things to different people (eg: “close coal mines” to East Coast greens, but “save coal mine jobs” to West Virginians).  Bernie, much as I like him personally, is selling a socialist package that (a) is economically unsustainable and (b) would never get through an American Congress.

In fact politicians in general appeal to people’s emotions, fears, and hopes. They tell people what they think people want to hear (the better funded use extensive focus groups and polling to determine just what that is).  They promise more than they know they can deliver. They always have.  In the end Trump isn’t really any different – just a lot better at it than anyone else in this year’s field of candidates.

It will be interesting to see what the 2020 election looks like in the light of this election’s unconventional course. Both parties clearly will need to completely rethink their strategies and their positions over the ensuing four years, whichever party wins the presidency. The bases of both parties have changed significantly, and the political mechanisms haven’t yet caught up to that change.  The party establishments will try to regain their power to control the nominations, but they may not succeed.

Of course the fat lady hasn’t sung yet. There are probably many more surprises and unexpected twists in the upcoming months that could substantially change the race. A Clinton indictment on her mishandling of emails, for example, could make a big different. A failure to indict her, or a presidential pardon if she were indicted could also have substantial repercussions. A sudden health problem with either candidate could make a difference. Something like a big domestic terrorist attack could make a difference. Many of those media pundits who are so certain of the outcome – whatever their predictions - will no doubt be humiliated yet again.