The
Democratic establishment is understandably unhappy that Bernie Sanders hasn’t
yet dropped out of the race against Hillary Clinton. The Clinton camp has been trying – apparently
without success thus far – to figure out how to convince him to quite without
angering his followers, which they need in the general election. Some have begun
to hint snidely that this is really about him, not his movement.
I
think Sanders is staying in the race because he knows that there is a good
chance that Hillary will have serious legal problems before the election which
will either cause her to drop out or cause the Democratic establishment to
figure out how to replace her as the nominee. And if that happens, Bernie would
be the obvious replacement, since he has the next most delegates, and in
polling thus far does better than Clinton against Trump.
I
have no doubt that the FBI will present enough evidence in her e-mail scandal to
the Justice Department to warrant an indictment. Just the publically revealed facts
provide that evidence (that she sent and received classified information – whether
so marked or not - on her unsecured private server), and I assume the FBI has
probably found other stuff too. But Attorney General Loretta Lynch, a Hillary supporter
and Obama appointee, has the final say on whether to put the case to a grand
jury, and will no doubt try to find a justification for not doing so.
And
there is a separate civil trial going on now under U.S. District Judge Emmet G.
Sullivan of Washington to determine if Hillary and her staff conspired (in the
criminal sense) to evade the government Freedom of Information Act with her
private server. And finally the State Department Inspector General has an investigation
going on to determine if the massive foreign contributions to the Clinton Foundation
while she was Secretary of State amounted to “pay for play” corruption.
I
assume the Obama administration will do everything it can to protect Hillary
from these legal challenges, just as they did with General Petraeus. If all
else fails, President Obama can always give her a presidential pardon, though politically
that might be as bad for Hillary and the Democratic Party as Hillary getting
indicted. Still, the administration has a number of ways of putting in a “fix”
to protect Hillary, and I assume they will use them if they have to.
But
the evidence may be too overwhelming, and if the FBI finds it has a strong case
and then the Justice Department tries to bury it or avoid indicting, the FBI
will probably leak damaging stuff and perhaps there will be a few highly
visible and highly embarrassing resignations. Apparently the FBI was not happy
about how General Patraeus’ case was handled, and is determined not to have
that happen again.
So
my guess is that Bernie thinks there is a reasonable chance yet that Hillary
will have to withdraw and he will be the nominee, and that is why he is not
letting up.
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