Tuesday, September 24, 2019

A tactical mistake?

I can't help but feel that the Democrat's decision today to begin formal impeachment proceedings in the House is a serious tactical mistake. It won't succeed, if only because the Republican-controlled Senate is highly unlikely to convict, especially on such obviously politically-motivated charges.

It will of course feed the Democratic base, but they were going to vote against Trump anyway, so it gains them nothing there that they didn't already have.

But it will probably energize Trump supporters to turn out in full force in the election, full of fury at the Democrat's continuing efforts to nullify their 2016 votes. Democrats should have learned from the midterm elections - the brutal battle over the Kavanaugh Supreme Court appointment cost them the Senate seats of all four of the Democratic Senators who were in the Judiciary Committee who were running for re-election,  and who voted against Kavanaugh's appointment (Joe Donnelly in Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, and Bill Nelson in Florida). Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who voted for Kavacnaugh's appointment, survived. These brutal political knife fights, though they may please the Democratic base, have a cost.

And if the polls are even remotely correct it will do nothing to attract swing voters to the Democratic candidate. Polls show the American public as a whole do not support impeachment. Even those that would like to see Trump removed want to see him removed by the 2020 election process, not by impeachment.  Moreover, Democrat's continuing focus (obsession?) with bringing down Trump has kept them from producing any positive legislative results, or even proposals, that would aid their own election efforts.

Nancy Pelosi was smart to try to keep this impeachment movement in check and keep her people focused on winning more House seats in 2020. I guess she has decided that the pressure from her caucus is now too strong to resist.   She may come to regret that decision.